Thursday, May 27, 2010

Brown up big in California

The big winner from the Republican primary for Governor in California? It might be Jerry Brown. The likely Democratic nominee, benefiting from bad feelings between Meg Whitman and Steve Poizner, has commanding double digit leads over both of them.

Brown is up 48-36 on Whitman and 48-32 on Poizner. There are almost no races in the country this year where Democratic voters are more unified than the Republicans- in almost every case there are more Democrats voting for GOP candidates than vice versa. That's not the case in California though where Brown takes 79% of the Democratic vote to Whitman's 72% of the Republican vote and 78% of the Democratic vote to Poizner's 67% of the Republican vote. Brown is bucking another overwhelming national trend by leading both of the GOP contenders with independents.

These results aren't particularly surprising in light of what we found in our polling on the GOP primary in the race. Whitman voters have a very negative opinion of Poizner and Poizner voters have a very negative opinion of Whitman. That's a dynamic more often seen in general election contests than primaries, and it's hampering the ability of both Republican candidates to be competitive with Brown this fall.

Brown is not particularly popular with 37% of voters having a favorable opinion of him to 39% with an unfavorable one. Amazingly after Brown's decades in the California political spotlight 24% of voters have no opinion of him but that speaks both to the length of time since he last served as Governor and also how hard it is to really make an impact on voters in such a large state. Brown looks like Mr. Popularity though when his favorability numbers are compared with those of Whitman and Poizner. Just 24% of voters see Whitman positively, with 44% having a negative opinion of her. And Poizner's even a little worse with 19% holding a favorable opinion of him to 43% unfavorable.

Republicans are going to have a lot of healing to do in the general election if this is going to be a competitive race. For now Brown is a strong favorite.

Full results here


Anonymous said...

It's malpractice to poll California and not ask about Initiative 09-0024 (marijuana legalization). It could have huge political implications if it passes.

Christian Liberty said...

among PPIC, R2000, Rasmussen, and PPP... only PPP has Brown up by any more than 5 against Whitman.

Christian Liberty said...

Asking about initiatives might be helpful if they drive turnout or if candidates take a public stand... but the real question is why the PPP poll is such an outlier, when no other recent poll has Brown with even half the lead that PPP finds.

Anonymous said...

The same bucks that nuked Poizner are starting to oil the guns that will be trained immediately in a barrage in a few weeks on Jerry Brown after Whitman wins her primary. Dems don't get your hopes too high.

Anonymous said...

Well finally a good poll for democratic side. It was time. It is are from PPP.

Christian Liberty seems now less happy... I glad

Unknown said...

The marijuana initiative won't be on the ballot until November. No need to poll it now. I think it's much the same thing with the governor's race. I live in California and there's been so much negative advertising about the other person being a far left liberal. You'd think Jerry Brown must be the conservative in the race. If anyone knew he was running. Brown has had no profile so far.

As a result I think you're wasting your time polling the general right now. Republicans will unite around the nominee. If there remains a big negative big government tax and spend mood Brown will get hurt. Being an old liberal politician in 2008 was great. This is an anti-Obama anti-incumbent environment and Brown has held office for most of the last 40 years.

Anonymous said...

You/PPP have Brown up on Whitman by 48-36 and 48-32 over Poizner.

Rasmussen (on 5/26) reported Brown ahead of Whitman 45-41 and Poizner 43-42.

The interesting thing about Poizner's poll numbers is that, a month ago, Brown was beating Poizner 50-32. Thats a 17% gain in gap differential between him and Brown - all in one month.

By the way, HOW in the world did you/PPP come up with numbers in this race that are so very much different than those that other pollsters are reporting? Hmmm!

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