Monday, May 17, 2010

The Connecticut Situation

If Richard Blumenthal has to be replaced as the Democratic Senate nominee in Connecticut the party should still be favored to keep the seat as long as it gets a functional candidate.

In early January we polled Congressman Chris Murphy against Rob Simmons and Linda McMahon and he led each of them by seven points. Almost half of the voters in the state said they had no opinion of Murphy personally so he functioned basically as a generic Democratic candidate. If the nominee ends up being someone of comparable quality- or Murphy himself- the party will continue to be favored in the race although certainly not by the stratospheric kind of numbers that Blumenthal was.

And of course Blumenthal may be able to weather this- it's always hard to tell with these things.

Here's the numbers from our January poll


Anonymous said...

I thought you weren't supposed to admit who it was till tommorrow. Jumping the gun there Jensen???

Tom Jensen said...

Where did I admit anything? The poll I was referencing in this post was done in January

Anonymous said...

Democrats would be idiots to try and get Chris Murphy into this race. Chris Murphy was a wash in from the 2006 Democratic wave. Also, Democrats would probably lose his seat without him there when they cant afford to keep giving away House seats.

Anonymous said...

OOOh I didn't know about the whole Blumenthal scandal, thats why you brought it up never mind.

Anonymous said...

Tom, any chance of doing a snap CT poll in a few days to see how things are looking for Blumenthal?


Anonymous said...

I'm guessing Anonymous #1 mixed up his parties and was referring to:

I'll let you know we have new numbers coming out tomorrow showing yet another NRSC recruited candidate in deep trouble of not winning their party's primary.

Unknown said...

It's nice to see that Dems are upset about this. It's not of the level of John Edwards but it's a similar situation.Why didn't he come clean about this years ago? Can we make a deal? We promise to never nominate John Ensign or Mark Sanford for any office again.

What's worse is that his campaign has called the Times story "an outrageous distortion" and touts his six months of service in the Marine Corps Reserves.

Bush and Cheney were roasted for their lack of service, but at least they didn't say they did. I bet Blumenthal has better stories than Rob Simmons, a guy who has actually getting shot at by the enemy.

John Schmidt said...

Murphy is a rubber stamp for Pelosi. He approved heathcare and that was enough for me to oppose him.

wt said...

I think Dodd considers jumping back in, actually. We'll see tomorrow. This is either career-ending or a one-day story, no in-between.

Moe Lane said...

Serious question, Tom: assuming Blumenthal drops (and he's going to see his numbers drop like a stone among McCain voters if he doesn't), do you think that the spillover would affect other Dem candidates?

wt said...

A poll right now in CT would reveal what Blumenthal's floor of support would be.

Anonymous said...

There hasn't been a CT Senate poll in a while, now is the time.

The Original Donald said...

My take-Blumenthal stays in and wins in November, esp. if Linda McMahon is the Republican nominee.

Christian Liberty said...

Blumenthal has dropped below 50%.

Blumenthal 48
McMahon 45

Blumenthal 50
Simmons 39

conducted May 18
500 LV +/-4.5%

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