Monday, August 4, 2008

Arizona President

John McCain 52
Barack Obama 40

There's been a lot of talk the last week that Arizona could be closer than expected this fall, but PPP's newest survey in the state shows John McCain holding a solid lead.

There are a few things helping McCain to do well in his home state. He trails Barack Obama only 48-40 among Latino voters, a performance much better than national polling is showing with that demographic. He's also getting more crossover support than Obama, with 16% of the Democratic vote, while holding almost everyone in his own party, earning 87% of the Republican vote.

There's not much of a gender gap, with McCain holding solid leads with both men and women. He leads every group except the 18-29 demographic.

With many traditionally GOP states like Virginia, Colorado, North Carolina, North Dakota, and Montana to name a few looking more winnable for Obama than Arizona this may be a state not worth putting much effort into.

Full results here.

2 comments:

Greg said...

Your party id numbers (36% Dem, 44% Rep, 20% Other) seem substantially different then the registration breakdown (34% Dem, 38% Rep, 27% Other). Not sure what would explain why the Other number is so low.

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