Looking at the race for the Presidency in Virginia by the numbers it's actually a pretty straight forward path to victory for Barack Obama- of course the execution is the hard part.
If blacks make up 20% of the electorate in the state as they make up 20% of the population, and Obama gets 90% of their votes he has 18%.
Assuming that another 5% of the electorate is other nonwhite voters, such as Asians and Hispanics, who tend to vote Democratic. If he gets 60% of those votes it's another 3%, pushing him up to 21%.
That leaves the white population at 75%, and Obama needing another 29% of the vote to get to 50%. If he gets 39% support from white voters he's there.
Right now John McCain leads 55-36 with white voters in the state so Obama would only need to get a third of undecided white voters to get to that magic 39%.
He'd probably do it if the election was today- but we've got another ten weeks left and who knows what will happen between now and November.