Sunday, August 31, 2008

Changing demographics have North Carolina trending blue: overview

PPP has released a new report comparing the voting preferences of native North Carolinians to non-native North Carolinians. I am posting the report on the blog in four posts- this is post one. You can read the whole report here.

A new analysis by Public Policy Polling comparing the voting preferences of North Carolinians who were born here to those who have moved into the state provides evidence that the state could trend more Democratic, particularly at the federal level, in the coming election cycles.

The Big Picture

In its simplest form, the evidence shows that native North Carolinians are supporting Republican candidates for the major statewide offices this year, while migrants to the state are supporting Democrats:

Office

Native North Carolinians

Non-Native North Carolinians

President

McCain 48 Obama 40

Obama 46 McCain 41

Senate

Dole 42 Hagan 39

Hagan 47 Dole 35

Governor

McCrory 41 Perdue 41

Perdue 46 McCrory 35

Newer North Carolina residents support the Democratic candidate more by a margin of anywhere from 11-15 points in the races for President, Governor, and Senate.

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