Tuesday, August 12, 2008

Colorado: Undecideds

With the race for President in Colorado close, it seems worth taking a look at who the undecided voters in the state are at this point:

-They are mostly independents (54%) with some Republicans (27%) and Democrats (18%) sprinkled in. This may seem like a no brainer but it shows that the possible trends of Democrats who supported Hillary not picking Obama and disaffected conservatives not choosing McCain are not really in play here.

-Demographically they are more female, more Hispanic, and younger than the population at large. 60% of them are female compared to 53% overall, 28% are Hispanic compared to 15% overall, and just 11% are over 65 while 19% are under 30 compared to 15% for both of those groups as a whole.

-It's hard to discern much about their general political leanings from their responses to other questions on the survey. They support Bob Schaffer over Mark Udall by a small amount, but they also give Ken Salazar a higher net approval rating than he gets with the general population.

The bottom line: these are all demographics favorable to Barack Obama, but he will need to convince these folks to choose him. The Hispanic vote, both who gets it and how much of it there is, could well decide who wins Colorado. Obama has a solid advantage there right now, but he also has a lot of room to improve.

Keep in mind of course that this analysis is based on the 75 respondents who reported as undecided for President in the survey, so not a huge sample owing to the fact that most voters have made a choice already.

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