Sunday, August 31, 2008

Changing demographics have North Carolina trending blue: Conclusions

PPP has released a new report comparing the voting preferences of native North Carolinians to non-native North Carolinians. I am posting the report on the blog in four posts- this is post four. You can read the whole report here.

For Barack Obama to win North Carolina this year it will probably take an exceptional turnout from black voters and young voters. Moving forward though the changing demographics of the state would seem to have the potential to make it one of those permanent swing states in Presidential elections. Older conservative Democrats who often vote Republican will continue to be replaced in the population by more liberal Democrats who consistently vote for their party’s candidates. There will likely also continue to be an influx of voters who identify with neither party but at least for this year are leaning more toward the Democratic side of the spectrum.

Another fact we can’t fully address yet is the emergence of the Hispanic vote as a meaningful factor in North Carolina politics, but as more children of immigrants born in the United States turn 18 and become eligible to vote in the coming cycles that should also contribute to making North Carolina more Democratic in federal elections.

If you thought our piece of the action during the Presidential primary was an exciting change from what has tended to be relatively boring races for the White House in North Carolina, you can probably look forward to more attention in the coming years.

This analysis based on a PPP survey of 2,066 North Carolinians including 1,115 natives and 951 non-natives conducted from August 20th to 23rd.


Anonymous said...

Are the questions and breakdowns like you have for your other polls available anywhere for this poll?

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