Look the Tar Heels kick off in less than an hour and I already wasted one night this week debunking a cruddy North Carolina poll so this is all I'm going to say:
-Research 2000 is a good company, but the last time it and PPP had a major conflict about a North Carolina contest, this is what happened. They missed the margin by 25 points, we missed it by two.
-There is no way Democrats will do as badly with white voters as that poll indicates. And don't throw the 2004 exit poll at me- because the exit poll way over represented black voters, it means Democrats did much better with white voters than the exit poll indicated. Although the demographic breakdown of the poll generally passes the smell test, it's the results for that group that are throwing off the whole thing. I think Obama will end up with at least about 33% of the white vote while Kay Hagan and Bev Perdue will get 40% or more.
I guess North Carolina is a hard state to poll. I hope Research 2000 and Survey USA do a better job of it the next time they survey the state. All their previous general election polls here had looked fine this cycle.