Barack Obama 50
John McCain 48
Over half of those who plan to vote in Florida this fall already have, and among those voters Barack Obama has built up a a 56-43 lead. That leaves John McCain playing catch up if he hopes to take the state on election day- he has a 54-42 lead among those folks planning to vote Tuesday, but the big question is whether they will really turn out.
Obama's lead in the state comes on the strength of a 57-36 lead with independent voters and a 55-42 advantage with Hispanics. He's also got his customary strong support from black (93-6) and young (63-34) voters.
He is not particularly competitive with the white vote, where McCain has a 57-41 lead, but his strong minority support looks like it might be enough to put him over the top in Florida.
Full results here.