Monday, November 3, 2008

Missouri Results

Barack Obama 49.4
John McCain 48.6

Barack Obama has a very small lead in Missouri that suffice it to say is within the poll's margin of error.

If he could keep his deficit among white voters in the state within single digits he would be in good shape to win it, but he currently trails 55-43 with that demographic. His 93-7 advantage among black voters evens that out, which means that the winner in Missouri could end up having a lot to do with the relative proportions of black and white voters within the electorate.

The candidates are knotted among independents voters, 48-48. McCain is pulling slightly more (91%) of his party's vote than Obama is (88%) but that's evened out by the slight Democratic identification edge in the state.

Obama has a dominant 61-35 lead with voters under 30 while trailing in every other age group. His ability to ensure those folks actually get out and cast their ballots may determine who takes Missouri.

Full results here.

11 comments:

Anonymous said...

So a one point lead (okay a .8 pt lead, but come on that is about 1 pt). Looks like a lot of states in the south will be determined by GOTV. Heck a lot of states period (montana, ohio, etc.,) are going to go based on GOTV. Makes McCain's decision to cannibalize his GOTV for tv ads look pretty stupid at this point.

Mathis said...

Tight as a tick, as Mr. Rather might say.

hatbox said...

Why did you decide to over sample the black vote in Missouri (11.5% of population vs. 13.3% in your poll) when there is little early voting and no evidence of a black surge and yet keep blacks at their % of population in Georgia and N.C despite evidence of a black surge in early voting

Anonymous said...

Sounds about right! I live in Missouri and I think it will be within .5%, but OBAMA will win because of GOTV. Missouri doesn't have early-voting and he's finishing strong here. There is an airplane flying over town right now saying "Vote OBAMA"

Anonymous said...

Who's next? I'm waiting for NV.

Levi said...

"His ability to ensure those folks actually get out and cast their ballots may determine who takes Missouri."

Well then, I'm glad I spent yesterday afternoon calling Missouri voters.

Anonymous said...

Obama will win in a Landslide. The Republican Party is just a bunch of white racists. It is filled with a bunch of Angry White Guys (and Gals) who think the 1965 Hart-Celler Immigration Act ruined America because it made it a lot harder for whites from Ireland, England, France, Germany, Italy, etc. to immigrate to the U.S. and made it a lot easier for the Chinese, Indians, Jamaicans, Mexicans, Egyptians, etc. to immigrate to the U.S. What these racists don't GET is that the 1965 Hart-Celler Immigration Act (Thank You Senator Ted Kennedy) greatly increased Diversity in the U.S. which has made OUR Nation stronger and a much more multicultural place to live. Before 1965 Whites of European descent made up 88% of the U.S. population. Now whites only make up 65% of the U.S. population and by 2042 they will only make up 49% of the population. By 2100 Whites of European descent will only make up about 30% of the U.S. population and only 3% of the World Population. The 2008 Election is just a turning point in American History though. By the end of this century white Europeans will be out of power in the United States(FINALLY!) and then we can finally end WHITE PRIVILEDGE and can get REAL Affirmative Action, REAL Reparations, REAL Change, and begin to redistribute wealth and property back to those who deserve it. Unfortunately, these Changes won't take place until the White Kids in Strollers and Elementary School today are in their 60's and 70's. The World is Flat. The white racist Republicans just don't seem to get it!

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