Monday, November 3, 2008

Montana Results

Barack Obama 48
John McCain 47
Ron Paul 4

It looks like the race for President in Montana is a complete tossup. What's less clear is that it can be attributed to Ron Paul's spot on the ballot in the state.

Paul is actually pulling equally from Democrats and Republicans- getting 2% of each of their votes- while polling at 9% with independents.

Obama has the slightest of leads based on his standing with two key groups: independents and voters under 30. With the former he has a 48-40 advantage. With the latter he is up 54-41.

Like in many states, the contest in Montana is going to come down to election day turnout. Among those who say they have already cast their ballots in the state, Barack Obama has built up a 61-35 lead. Among those planning to vote on Tuesday John McCain has a 53-40 advantage. The extent to which those folks follow through is likely to be the deciding factor in who takes the state.

Full results here.

13 comments:

Jason said...

Oh wow. That was unexpected.

Anonymous said...

WOW! Can Obama actually pull a win out of MT? What a night it will be tuesday! Can't wait for the results!

Amot said...

Tom, can you provide crosstabs on early voting by party affiliation? I think withoit it we miss the whole picture...

Anonymous said...

So far early voting (as of 10/30)in Montana is at 40% of the total vote (early and day of) in the state from 2004.

J said...

Would def love to see cross-tabs on early voters. If you do the math with the gov race and House race it looks like Obama might be over performing among early voters in comparison to Baucus and Rehberg

hnmnf said...

What about Florida Is that still happening soon?

Anonymous said...

Um this good news in Montana makes me nervous that your other results have a left lean :/

Or it could simply mean the race is close. But I dunno, tuesday just can't come soon enough.

Laura in WA said...

Who'd have thought we'd have an election where the Democrat is polling almost as well in MONTANA as Ohio???

Jacob said...

nice article

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