Barack Obama 50
John McCain 49
Bob Barr 1
Barack Obama's chances in North Carolina on Tuesday really could depend on the weather.
PPP projects that he racked up a lead of a little over 250,000 voters during early voting. He led 55-45 among those who said they had already voted in our poll, and a little over 2.5 million North Carolinians have already cast their ballots.
But among those planning to vote on election day John McCain leads 56-42. It is always better to have actual votes than hypothetical votes so there's no doubt Obama has the edge right now- the question is just whether enough of those McCain supporters really turn out to make up the gap.
Here is the demographic composition of folks planning to vote on election day itself:
-41% Democrats, 43% Republicans, 16% independents
-79% white, 17% black
-51% men, 49% women
Those numbers all bode more poorly for Democrats than the figures for folks who already voted.
It's going to be a dogfight. We could be headed for a recount.
Full results here.