Sunday, November 2, 2008

Virginia Results

Barack Obama 52
John McCain 46

Barack Obama led in all seven surveys PPP conducted in Virginia this year.

The race has tightened since last week when we found Obama leading 52-43 in the state. The undecideds may be moving toward John McCain but the Democratic nominee has not lost any ground and given that he's over 50% that's a good sign for his prospects there.

More important Obama is still holding the same 42% share of the white vote that he had last week. McCain has improved from 53 to 56% within that demographic. A PPP analysis conducted over the summer found that 39% of white voters would probably get the job done for Obama in Virginia and he has consistently exceeded that over the last six weeks.

Virginia is another key battleground where Obama is winning more Republican votes (13%) than McCain is Democratic votes (9%). Concerns about party unity with former supporters of Hillary Clinton seem to have been considerably overblown. Obama is also winning by a narrow 49-47 margin with independent voters.

In Virginia's US Senate race Democrat Mark Warner is set for an easy victory. He leads fellow former Governor Jim Gilmore 62-36, including a 67-28 lead with independents.

Full results here.

23 comments:

Anonymous said...

PA next PA nex :))

Jeremy said...

I'll take it.

Anonymous said...

Yeeeehaaw! Not BAD! I'm off to have sweet dreams of blue electoral college maps.

andy said...

Your results are very much in line with SUSAs latest poll of VA, for whatever that is worth (probably something).

Ockham said...

we'll take 6!

s said...

A 6 point lead and still well over 50 works for me

sam' said...

Obama's ahead by only 53-46 among voters under age 30? Weird

Bryan said...

i guessed right! (i think)

Anonymous said...

Virginia along with North Carolina and Nevada are the only states with WEather ahead on Tuesday. Rain in areas like Richmond and the SE part of the state. SW is sunny...

Anyone have ideas who that will help ultimately?

andy said...

it should help the candidate with the more enthusiastic base (that would be Obama this year), though my guess is it won't make a big difference either way.

Anonymous said...

SW Virginia is GOP, Northern is strongly Dem, SE is slightly GOP. Richmond is mixed (city vs. suburbs). The weather is 30% chance of rain in Northern VA Tuesday---probably not enough to make a huge difference.

Tom said...

Will 9% of African Americans really vote for McCain? I think Kerry performed as well as Obama seems to be doing with this demo. Seems wrong.

Anonymous said...

The weather in Nevada looks great for Obama. Clear in Vegas, rain/snow in Reno.

Mark said...

Tom--

There were 1500 polled, and 20% were AA, which is 300. 9% of that is 27. That's such a small sample---it has a huge error. The number could be between 5 and 13%. Just small statistical fluctuations.

Anonymous said...

No gender gap?

Obama's doing better among women (53%-45%) than among women (52%-47%) in Virginia? With all due respect, that's very hard to believe, given that there's a huge gender gap pretty much everywhere.

Sreenu said...

Anonymous said...
No gender gap?

I have seen this sort of behavior only in VA on several polls this cycle conducted by different pollsters.

vinceg said...

I'm pulling for Obama but do you think a 40D - 35R - 25I party ID split is a little too optimistic in VA? SUSA has it at 38D - 36R - 24I and in the 2004 vote it was actually 35D - 39R - 26I.

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