We have two polls in the field right now, a national one looking at the Congressional picture for next year and our monthly Virginia survey.
Some early numbers on the Congressional one- out of the first 119 respondents 47 said they would reelect their representative next year, 41 said they would not, and 31 said they were unsure. Now it likely won't play out that way in real life- when people see the alternatives a lot more of them will probably vote for what they have- but it's a good picture into the discontent out there right now. The numbers of seats shifting would be in triple digits if it really did work out that way.
A couple early observations from the Virginia numbers:
-George Allen appears to be more popular than Barack Obama with the 2009 electorate.
-Creigh Deeds seems to be doing marginally better than a month ago but is still down by a good bit.
Finally, we need to get North Carolina into the field on Tuesday and I'm having a harder time than usual thinking up questions so if you have suggestions I'm quite open to them. Two that we put on the Virginia poll came either from blog comments or Twitter suggestions.
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14 comments:
For NC-
Would NC voters support a bill that would allow for them to re-call elected officials, and would they support a re-call of Bev Perdue?
So is Allen no longer "way more" popular, as indicated by your tweet, and just more popular?
An interesting one could be asking them whether they believe in evolution or creationism. Religion's role in this has been understated so far.
Perdue's hard re-elect.
Why not poll cap and trade and see how it's doing in North Carolina?
Poll the war in Afghanistan and Iraq.
How do NC voters feel about offshore energy development, if it was at least 100 miles off the coast? (energy = wind, natural gas, oil, wave collection)
I would poll the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq *separately*. It would be interesting to see how support on just Afghanistan is sizing up. A WaPo poll a week or so ago had support for that war way down in VA (the last poll they did on Governor's race).
Polling Nancy Pelosi's favorable/ unfavorable plus how important Pelosi's job performance is to voters could be interesting. Republicans have been trying to tie Pelosi around vulnerable Dems: while it's pretty clear most voters don't like her, it's unclear whether people care that much about her or not. It's worth testing whether Pelosi really is to the Dems what Bush was to the GOP in 2006, or just someone people don't like but mostly ignore.
You could do 2012 presidental match-up in NC.
I sent an email suggesting you switch the Jersey and Virginia polls. And that was because something exactly like the wapo article hadn't happened yet.
Ask about Cap-and-Tax and if the voters understand how it will affect future power bills.
Ask about if they want more clean, nuclear power.
Off-shore drilling? (A South Carolina's legislative committee is likely to approve it tomorrow (Sep. 1) for the coast of SC).
I read about a poll from 1962 in which respondents were asked simply if they had voted for JFK. 60+ percent claimed they had... obviously not true. I wonder if people who would claim to have voted for Obama would fall below his true election day numbers here in NC... and how that would stack up against his present approval rating.
Hopefully the truth coming out about the far right wing views of Bob McDonnell will destroy his political career. We can't stand for a fascist like that as our Governor in Virginia. It's unacceptable!
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