Tuesday, March 9, 2010

Black Tuesday?

Remember Black Tuesday, the supposedly horrible day for Democrats when Bill Ritter in Colorado, Chris Dodd in Connecticut, and Byron Dorgan all announced their retirements?

I was pretty critical of the media for pushing the 'Black Tuesday' narrative at the time but now I see maybe they were right- except that it was a bad day for the Republicans rather than the Democrats.

It's already pretty clear that while Dorgan's retirement cost Democrats any chance of keeping his seat, Dodd's retirement and the subsequent candidacy of Richard Blumenthal ensured that Democrats will keep his seat. The race where the consequences has been less clear is in Colorado.

Well we'll have Colorado Governor numbers out tomorrow and here's a little preview- John Hickenlooper's net favorability is 36 points better than Bill Ritter's net approval. As you can imagine that makes Hickenlooper just a little more competitive in the horse race.

When Ritter was still in the race I thought Republicans were slightly favored here. After doing out first poll with Hickenlooper I now think Democrats are slightly favored for the hold. But boy was that Tuesday, January 5th bad for Democrats.


Darsh said...

The only really bad news that day was Dorgan's retirement. Dodd and Ritter's probably helped the dems, as your polling has confirmed.

Anonymous said...

Ramussen has Mcinnis up in Colorado

I suspect we pick up Colorado Senate and Gov Seat

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