Tuesday, March 9, 2010

Crist down big

Support for Charlie Crist from conservative voters has pretty much evaporated, and that's allowed Marco Rubio to build a 32 point lead in the Republican primary for Senate.

Rubio now leads Crist 60-28, including a staggering 71-17 lead with conservatives. Crist has a 49-36 advantage with party moderates, but they account for just 31% of likely primary voters compared to 65% who describe themselves as conservative.

Rubio is benefiting from a widely held sentiment among Florida GOP voters that Congressional Republicans are too liberal and that Crist would add to the problem. 41% of them think that the party leadership in Washington is too liberal, and with those folks Rubio holds an 83-10 lead. 50% think that Crist himself is too liberal and with those voters Rubio's advantage expands even wider to 90-5.

It also looks like it's too late for Crist to audible and make another run for Governor. GOP voters say they'd prefer likely nominee Bill McCollum over Crist by a 49-35 margin. In fact Republicans generally just want Crist to go away- 56% say they'd like him out of office a year from now to 19% who'd like to see him continue as Governor and only 14% who want him in the Senate.

Crist's biggest problem is that 56% of Republican primary voters disapprove of the job he's doing as Governor to just 29% who approve. Any time that disapproval figure goes over 50% it means you have to actively change voters' minds about you to have any success, and that's a tall order.

Our general election Senate numbers, which we'll release tomorrow, find that Crist is a good deal more popular with Democrats now than he is with Republicans. His path to any future electoral victory may come as an independent or perhaps even as a Democrat.

Full results here

15 comments:

Anonymous said...

It's not too late to call an audible and run for governor. Have you ever seen McCollum's retail politics skills? No? That's because they don't exist. If Crist gets back in the race and starts working, he'll clean the floor with McCollum and be Governor this time next year.

Anonymous said...

I'm a Floridian conservative independant who actually voted Crist into the Governors office. I called myself a conservative independant because politicians like Crist have ruined the Republican Party by being a RINO. I left the party mostly because of the likes of Crist, and McCain. I hope Charlie gets the message, and moves back to St. Pete, where he can maybe open up a person injury legal office. Thats sounds about right for him!

Anonymous said...

Crist is damaged goods. As pointed out in the article, the only real chance Crist has in politics is to change parties and run as a Democrat -- no amount of sprucing up and working at his Conservative image will revive his career on the Right.

Anonymous said...

Sorry Charlie.... You are so yesterday. Go Rubio

Tally said...

It is too late.

In a Republican primary, it's the same set of voters who don't like Crist any more, whether the office is US Senator or Governor.

The guy has a problem.

Dave said...

As near as I can tell the Florida filing deadline is April 30 regardless of whether the candidate is running as a Republican or an independent. The good news is that Kendrick Meek is going door to door to get signatures so Charlie can qualify as an independent.

Dave said...

I just read how devious you are. You're polling Rubio way up on Crist to help him win and way up on Meek so that Rubio does a Coakley.

But wait. Rasmussen had Rubio up 18 points in their last poll. You've managed to rig their poll too. Republican pollster Fabrizio had Rubio up 14 points. You got to them too. And I'm sure you're conspiring Quinnipiac to not poll again. My hat is off to you.

Rasmus said...

First anon... yeah, and Crist's political skills are so awesome, he's down 28-60 against a guy who had zero name recognition and money when he entered the race against a governor with approval ratings in the 70's.

Anonymous said...

I'll be glad to see Crist go. Please take McLame with you....

Anonymous said...

Christ is getting demolished. see ya RINO.

What is Rubio's stance on war spending ?

Anonymous said...

My observations of Governor Crist are that he is dedicated, skilled, informed, honest and has the leadership methods that will serve us well in Florida, and equally importantly, in the decision making our country needs in relations with other countries. His communications are not limited to Mom and apple pie statements like the political boilerplate of his opposition.

Scoop said...

Charlie Crist has never been Conservative. Is it a wonder the Democrats like Charlie? What is just as bad is when the GOP endorses political candidates in primary races. The GOP needs to stay out of primaries and let the Republican people chose what Republican they want to represent them. The GOP should enter the fight in the general election cycle only. I'm glad Marco Rubio is Conservative and he knows we Conservatives will be watching. Hopefully, we can repeal Florida's participation in RealID.

Anonymous said...

Can you put out the general election numbers already?

Anonymous said...

Do you have Governor Numbers also?

Anonymous said...

Did you know there is more than one Democrat running for Senate in Florida?

 
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