So Bill Brady's now officially the Republican candidate for Governor of Illinois.
I see a lot of parallels between Brady's surprising victory and that of Creigh Deeds in the Democratic primary for Governor of Virginia last year. They both started out well behind in the polls and in the conventional wisdom of who the top candidates were, and they both rose to the nomination while the front runners in their respective races destroyed each other. Both instances are shining examples of the perils of going negative in a multi candidate primary- you never know who you're benefiting.
Deeds ended up being a first class dud in the general election, and early indications are that Brady might be as well. Even though we found Pat Quinn with only a 25% approval rating the last time we surveyed Illinois, the first two polls pitting him against Brady post-primary have shown him with an 11-15 point lead. And he's drawing negative attention already for making attacks against Quinn that he can't back up with facts.
In January we had Quinn down 6-7 points to Jim Ryan and Andy McKenna. This is one race where a crowded, divisive Republican primary has worked to the Democrats' benefit and the party can only hope there's more where that came from.