Last night's health care vote was a great victory for Barack Obama but I wouldn't expect much, if any, of a bounce in his approval rating.
That's because on our last national survey 93% of the voters who disapproved of Obama said they were opposed to his health care plan with only 3% in support. So it doesn't seem all that likely that his getting a bill passed that they oppose would now make them like him.
Beyond that the small segment of voters who said they were undecided on Obama's job performance expressed opposition to the health care plan by a 45/24 margin.
Of course the real deal with health care is that if Democrats were just worried about the next election or if Obama was just worried about his approval numbers, they would have never messed with it. The bill is likely to have short term consequences for the party, and it's impossible to say whether those will be offset by long term gains or not. But Obama and Congressional Democrats were willing to do something unpopular because they thought it was the right thing to do.