Thursday, March 25, 2010

Romney up in Ohio and Wisconsin

Our state by state look ahead to the contest for the 2012 Republican Presidential nomination continues to find the same result over and over again: a closely clustered field but one almost always led by Mitt Romney.

In Ohio Romney leads with 32% to 28% for Mike Huckabee and 26% for Sarah Palin. Romney is also at 32% in Wisconsin, followed by Palin with 27% and Huckabee with 23%.

The numbers in these two midwestern states follow the big trend we've been seeing across the country, which is that conservatives are split pretty evenly in their support between the three candidates at this point but Romney leads overall because of a wide advantage among moderates.

In Ohio Palin has the lead by two points with conservatives over Huckabee and Romney, but Romney's at 43% with moderates to 26% for Huckabee and only 15% for Palin. In Wisconsin Romney leads Palin by 3 with conservatives but widens his overall lead thanks to a double digit edge with moderates. At this (very early) point there is no clear preference among conservatives for any particular candidate, but moderates are going strongly for Romney and that's fueling these leads.

Out of the eight states we've looked at now Romney has led in 6, finished second in 1, and finished third in 1. Huckabee has led in 2, finished second in 3, and finished third in 3. Palin has finished second in 4, and finished third in 4. Here's the full breakdown:

State

First

Second

Third

Colorado

Romney

Palin

Huckabee

Florida

Romney

Huckabee

Palin

Georgia

Huckabee

Romney

Palin

New Mexico

Romney

Palin

Huckabee

North Carolina

Huckabee

Palin

Romney

Ohio

Romney

Huckabee

Palin

Texas

Romney

Huckabee

Palin

Wisconsin

Romney

Palin

Huckabee

8 comments:

Bryan said...

You should do a state-by-state matchups of potential GOPers v. Obama in swing states. Would be interesting.

Anonymous said...

I'd like to see how Mitch Daniels, Tim Pawlenty, and Rick Santorum fare in Midwestern primary polls. These guys seem more interested than Huckabee and Palin. Huckabee seems content working for Fox. Palin is more interested in working for TLC.

Christian Liberty said...

The relevant states are still IA, NH, SC, NV. Plenty of statewide and congressional races that could be piggybacked to the same poll. Why no polls in the early states?

Mmm said...

Anyone practically is better than McCain. his rhetoric since the election proves what a disastrous Republican President he would hae been.

Anonymous said...

You should a 2012 poll to see how much GOP votes does she "steal" from Romney & Huckabee as a Tea Party candidate.

Huckapedia said...

Mike Huckabee leads in 2012 Presidential Polls, he has WON 14 Major 2012 Presidential Polls:

14) PPP Poll (03/18/10)
Huckabee 50%, Obama 41% Midwest
Huckabee 47%, Obama 44% South

13) Iowa Poll (03/09/10)
Huckabee 21%, Romney 14%,Palin 12%

12) PPP Poll (03/04/10) - Georgia
Huckabee 38%, Romney 28%, Palin 25%

11) PPP Poll (02/18/10) - NC
Huckabee 33%, Palin 27%, Romney 25%
10) Alabama Poll (02/09/09)
Huckabee 33%, Palin 23%, Romney 12%

09) PPP Poll (01/22/10)
Huckabee 45%, Obama 44%

08) PPP Poll (12/10/09)
Huckabee 45%, Obama 46%

07) Iowa 2012 Poll (11-23-09)
Huckabee 39%, Gingrich 32%,Rom 32%

06) USA Today Poll (11/05/09)
Huckabee 71%, Romney 65%, Palin 65%

05) CNN Poll (10/28/09)
Huckabee 32%, Palin 25%, Romney 21%

04) Rasmussen Poll (10/15/09)
Huckabee 29%, Romney 24%, Palin 18%

03) PPP Poll (09/24/09)
Huckabee 41%, Romeny 39%, Palin 38%

02) AOL Poll (10/01/09)~200k votes
Huckabee 25%, Romney 22%, Other 14%

01) Value Voter Poll (09/19/09)
Huckabee 28%, Romney 12%, Pawl 12%
The Gigantic Network of Huckabee Fans continues to expand across the country at a blistering pace. The momentum keeps on growing!

Freedom said...

Why don't you do a poll that pits "Ron Paul vs Each of these candidates"?
Oh that's right, because you don't want to talk about Ron Paul. You want to marginalize the only honest and uncorrupted candidate with polls and the media because the government pays you better. Everyone of these three jerks don't want to actually do anything that will result in the reverse of communism masking as the "free world" and removing the mafia that goes under the cloak of the federal government. You are as big of a slime bag for taking the payday as the government you support.

Anonymous said...

WHERE IS RON PAUL?!

He won the CPAC, GOP, and RNC Polls...and yet he isn't on the list here.

NEO-CON ALERT!
THIS POLL IS BIAS!

 
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