Thursday, April 29, 2010

2012 GOP in Arizona

For our look ahead to the 2012 Presidential race in Arizona this week we added Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul to go along with our usual choices of Mitt Huckabee, Sarah Palin, and Mitt Romney. And although we'll certainly need to see polling from more states to confirm a trend, the numbers suggest a Gingrich candidacy could hurt Palin's prospects.

Mitt Romney leads the way with 27% to 19% for Gingrich, 13% for Palin, 12% for Huckabee, and 9% for Paul. When we had polled previously in the neighboring states of New Mexico and Colorado we found Palin in second place behind Romney. But in Arizona Gingrich emerges as the main conservative challenger to Romney, trailing him just 29-26 with those voters. Romney's broader overall lead comes because he's up 25-7 on Gingrich with moderates.

Palin and Gingrich both have a unique appeal to the most partisan of Republican voters, but it may be that they see Gingrich as a more substantive and 'Presidential' candidate. They could end up competing for the same pool of GOP partisans, and if they both run it may prove to be a good thing for Romney. We'll certainly keep an eye on this.

Full results here

8 comments:

Brandon K said...

Can you please do an IN Senate Primary poll this weekend?

PNC said...

If Gingrich does this well in Arizona's primary, perhaps you should consider permanently including Gingrich in the candidate choices for all your 2012 primary polls. You might even be justified in replacing Palin with Gingrich entirely.

Anonymous said...

Tom why don't you poll the Michigan's governor's race. After all it is your home state.

Dave said...

Palin is a politician long on charm and charisma who has few accomplishments and policy lightweight. Gingrich has no charm, little charisma, ran the House when the GOP produced surpluses, and is a real policy wonk. It's hard to believe they appeal to the same voter.

Anonymous said...

Ron Paul 2012! FTW!!!

http://www.TheRonPaulTeaParty.com

Anonymous said...

Gingrich wants to work with Pelosi to pass climate change legislation:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VaZFfQKWX54

I wish people would do a little research before they vote.

Anonymous said...

Mitt Romney is for an individual mandate for health insurance:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y6DrH6P9OC0

When are people going to wake up and stop voting for RINOs?

Dave said...

Ron Paul is by far the best choice. All the rest are corrupt sell-outs.

 
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