The Corzine Line

Jon Corzine's approval was a net -23 on our final poll before the New Jersey Governor's race, with 34% of voters in the state giving him good marks and 57% bad ones. Anyone polling below the Corzine line seems like a pretty good bet to be defeated.

There are actually only three politicians up for reelection this year in our recent polling who find themselves in that category. One is Blanche Lincoln at 27/62, who most political observers do expect to lose. Another is Deval Patrick at 22/59. He may be saved by the presence of a third party candidate in his race but it's still really hard to see him surviving with those kind of approval numbers. The third is Pat Quinn, whose approval is 25/53 in numbers we'll release tomorrow. That's pretty unpopular but it's also a really Democratic state- will the negative feelings about Quinn or the overall blue tone of the state dictate what happens this fall? We'll give you some early answers tomorrow.