Romney's lead is wider in Illinois where he gets 34% to 28% for Mike Huckabee and 24% for Sarah Palin. In Pennsylvania he gets 31% to 27% for both Huckabee and Palin.
Romney's leads in most of these early polls are following a similar formula: break even with conservatives while racking up a large lead with moderates. In Pennsylvania Palin actually leads Romney 31-28 with conservatives, but Romney's 39-20 margin over her with moderates gives him the overall advantage. In Illinois Romney's only up 33-30 with conservatives on Huckabee, but his 38-26 lead with moderates allows him to double his early edge.
The other theme showing in most of these early polls is that Romney is very strong with senior citizens. He's up 9 points on Huckabee and 12 on Palin with them in Pennsylvania, and in Illinois it's 11 on Huckabee and 13 on Palin.
Romney has now led in 8 out of 12 states where we've looked ahead to the 2012 GOP race, including every state outside of the South. Huckabee led in the other four, and Palin continues to hold the donut:
| State | First | Second | Third |
| | Huckabee | Palin | Romney |
| | Romney | Palin | Huckabee |
| | Romney | Huckabee | Palin |
| | Huckabee | Romney | Palin |
| | Romney | Huckabee | Palin |
| | Huckabee | Palin | Romney |
| | Romney | Palin | Huckabee |
| | Huckabee | Palin | Romney |
| | Romney | Huckabee | Palin |
| | Romney | Huckabee/Palin | Huckabee/Palin |
| | Romney | Huckabee | Palin |
| | Romney | Palin | Huckabee |
Full results here
6 comments:
Hey, why don't you people factor in the margin of error in the list of winners?!? Why do you place statistically tied probable candidates in two separate places.
You know, Rombots are mathematically stupid and claims everything as a win for their beloved Romney the Liberal.
And yet on Intrade, the big three are Romney ($26), Palin ($23), and Thune ($19). Huckabee is all the way down at $8, behind even Pawlenty.
If you are going to poll the Huckster, you should at least provide the options of Thune and Pawlenty too. Or don't suggest any names and let respondents volunteeer their own. I suspect that restricting it to Romney, Huckabee, and Palin tends to inflate Huckabee's numbers and diminish Palin's.
Romney won't be in the final four. This poll is useless.
Romney is ahead in the polls. Live with it.
And all these polls don't matter. 2012 isn't here yet.
To summarize these findings:
Romney and Huckabee each get 9 first or second place finishes; Palin gets 7.
Palin is still very competitive despite being the only candidate regularly and unfairly mocked in prime time.
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