Wednesday, April 14, 2010

Obama Approval and Repeal

PPP's first national poll since the passage of the health care bill finds Barack Obama's approval rating basically unchanged, with 46% of voters giving him good marks to 48% who disapprove. A month ago it was a 47/48 spread. This is the 4th out of 5 national surveys in 2010 that has put Obama in negative territory.

The same basic dynamics in Obama's national polling continue to be at play- Democrats pretty universally still love him (84% approval), Republicans don't (87% disapproval), and independents are split pretty evenly. This month they go slightly against Obama by a 45/41 margin and that leads to his overall net negative standing.

Support for the health care bill itself has also remained steady since its passage. 45% supported it a month ago and that 45% figure continues this month with 50% opposed.

A majority of voters express support for repealing the health care bill, but before Republicans get too gung ho there's also a red flag in those numbers. While independents are opposed to the bill by a 47/42 margin, only 34% of them say repeal should be a priority for Congress while 54% think it should not be. Pushing for repeal is certainly popular with the GOP base but it has the potential to turn off swing voters who join Republicans in their opposition to the health care bill but are ready for Washington to move onto other things.

It will be interesting to see if the Republicans overplay their hand and start to move some of these voters back toward the Democrats. At this point there's no doubt health care has been a winning issue for Republicans but it's possible that they've already milked it for all it's worth and could harm themselves by continuing to focus on it.

Full results here

13 comments:

Rasmus said...

How can people support repealing the Health Care bill, but not oppose it in general? Are they, like, masochists?

Anonymous said...

Hello-

I looked at the crosstabs and it seems that the party ID is 38/38/24. Isn't this an inaccurate representation of the party ID of the country? Or are the results then weighted for the true party ID of the country?

Thanks.

Christian Liberty said...

The more Americans learn about Obamacare, the more they will reject it... and the more they will be encouraged to hear the Republicans honoring the highest ideals of medicine: FIRST DO NO HARM. Obamacare is the most harmful law passed in more than a generation. The proportion of Americans (especially business owners/managers/investors) who will favor repeal will only increase with time and sunlight.

Christian Liberty said...

First of all, asking whether Congress should make repeal a priority "for the rest of the year" is clearly going to underreport support for repeal, since likely voters understand that it is a FUTURE Congress that would vote for repeal... and it will not be until 2013 that there will be a president who will honor America's wishes for repeal.

That said, it is actually quite remarkable how many still support repeal AND say that it should be a priority "for the rest of the year".

from the crosstabs:

favor repeal: majorities of men and women BOTH say yes.

repeal a PRIORITY "for the rest of the year": pluralities of men and women BOTH say YES.

Hispanics (upon whom Democrats hang their hopes of a future majority) are evenly divided on support of REPEAL of Obamacare.

Majorities support REPEAL among ages 30 to 45 and 45 to 65. Pluralities support REPEAL among ages 18 to 30 and >65. Not a single age group is opposed to repeal!!

Repeal is also a PRIORITY for a plurality from 30 to 45 and a MAJORITY from 45 to 65.

Do you support REPEAL of Obamacare? McCain voters say yes by a greater margin than Obama voters say no. Additionally, those who voted "someone else/don't remember" favor repeal by greater than 2 to 1.

Is repeal a PRIORITY? McCain voters say yes by a greater margin than Obama voters say no. Those who voted for other/DR also say yes.

Do you support REPEAL of Obamacare? Conservatives (40% of adults, according to Gallup) say yes by greater margins than liberals (only 21% of adults) say no.

Is repeal a PRIORITY "for the rest of the year"? Conservatives say yes by greater margins than liberals say no.

---> So does this throw cold water on repeal? Hardly! The poll shows a broad coalition favors repeal and believes "Congress should make repealing the health care bill one of its top priorities for the rest of the year".

The plurality of likely voters are already saying that Congress should make repeal on of their top priorities THIS YEAR. Americans don't even want Congress to wait until next year, let alone 2013, to see Congress (and candidates for Congress) discuss repeal. Americans, as this PPP poll shows, believe "Congress should make repealing the health care bill one of its top priorities for the rest of the year" --- THIS YEAR.

Americans (especially likely voters in the midterm) are not only supportive of repeal; they are EAGER for repeal!

Anonymous said...

Tom,
You/PPP and Rasmussen must be on different planets in respects to support for repeal of the health care bill, recently passed by Congress. While you state that "A majority of voters express support for repealing the health care bill...", you fail to provide any relative polling numbers (one way or the other), that gives credible weight to the degree of opposition/support repeal Why?. You state that current overall opposition/support for the bill is 50/45, while support for repeal amongst independents, at 34%, with 54% opposing such action (-20%). HUH? In addition, Rasmussen Report (on 4/12) has overall support for repeal of the bill at 58%, with 38% opposed (+20%) and 54% of unafilliated voters favoring repeal. All things considered, your/PPP's numbers, in themselves, makes absolutely no sense at all. Nor does the disparity of those same numbers with the ones provided by Rasmussen. What gives Tom? Is this yet one more case of political bias on your part? It certainly seems that way!

Health Care Reform said...

Now Republicans the party of NO and tea Baggers want raising money to repeal health care reform.
Who will give them money any way ? Well , Still many idiots out there :
- If People were stupid enough to buy Salin Palin books than more likely They will believe health care bill can be repealed.
- If Those people are OK with Mitt Romney shepherd a near-universal health-insurance system into law as governor of Massachusetts while he opposes Mr. Obama's health-care policy ,Than I am not surprise when They give money to GOP.

No wonder Salin Palin became multi millionaire over night while Republican National Chairman Michael Steele Enjoyed $2000 lunch at sex club in Hollywood .Tea party leaders enjoy Private jet and Limo ride at FREE money from many Idiots around Country.
Many people don't know most of policies in US are results of fighting between big corporations.

Same thing happened to health care .the bill was the final result of the fight between insurers and hospitals ,drug makers .And as you see hospitals and drug makers became winners.
Now ,What make You think they can repeal health care bill ? repeal what ?
- Repeal Children can not be denied by insurance companies because of pre existing condition ?
- Repeal College students can not stay with parent policies until 26 ?
- Repeal insurance companies can not deny pre existing conditions ?
Well if 3 parts above seems like no away they can repeal than what can they repeal ?
- Repeal mandate every body has to buy insurance ?? ( now you are not talking about fighting with hospital ,drug makers but you want to fight with insurers too !! sincere insurers can not deny pre existing conditions they need mandatory so they can have more customers to cover those pre existing conditions ).
- Repeal subsides low income people ( how can you mandate poor people to buy insurance when they have no money ?)
- Repeal increasing tax to rich people ( where will you get money to subsides poor people ? increase deficit by borrow more from china? )
As you can see any part of the health care bill relate to each other .You can not take any part off .
Any candidate promise repeal health care bill is foolish .They just want to take advantage of people to make money for their own purpose.

Christian Liberty said...

Hey Health Care Deform,

Americans WANT a party that says NO to bad ideas. And Obamacare is the worst idea in more than a generation.

Americans support repeal of this abomination. This makes the Republicans the party of the people... and the Democrats the party of no.

Randy said...

I like you guys a lot, but I have to question your Party ID numbers for this poll.

Christian Liberty said...

PPP, if independents don't feel repeal should be a PRIORITY "for the rest of the year" (i.e. before Congress is more amenable toward repeal and while unemployment and underemployment is still high), the question follows: what do independents feel SHOULD be one of Congress' top priorities?

More than likely, Independents would favor: controlling the deficits over more government spending, controlling the deficits by cutting government spending rather than raising taxes, restarting the economy rather than increasing regulation, restarting the economy by tax cuts rather than government spending, exploring for more energy rather than banning off-shore drilling or delaying nuclear reactors, letting states, and school districts downsize rather than bailing out profligate government spending, ending bailouts for "too big to fail"s rather than adding regulation and increasing government control over industry, letting companies go bankrupt rather than nationalizing private businesses, fiscal restraint rather than tax-and-spend, etc...

On practically any issue, independents prefer Republicans' ideas and more importantly TRUST Republicans more than Democrats (see Rasmussen: Republicans are more trusted on 9 of the top 10 issues - including the economy, national security, Iraq, healthcare, education, immigration, social security, taxes, and abortion).

Even if independents are lukewarm to the URGENCY of repeal (although supportive of repeal in general), independents support and prefer Republicans on the majority of the most important issues of the day. Even if repeal alone doesn't put Republicans over the top, Republicans do not lack for ways to build rapport and support with independents and likely voters.

Christian Liberty said...

Why does the thought of the impending repeal of Obamacare anger "progressives" so much? Is it simply the horror at seeing so much hard work and lobbying going to waste? the bitter taste of an issue that once favored Democrats turning into ashes in their mouth (and an albatross on their necks)?

No, it's more than that. It's something more profound and philosophical. The impending repeal of Obamacare (and the popularity of the repeal issue among independents) is so jarring to "progressives" for a deeper reason that challenges the fundamental core of the progressive ideology.

It is, as Henry Hazlitt so intelligently said, "because by implication it challenges the present smugly fashionable assumption that every change means progress, and that whatever political or economic trend is latest in time must be best."

Obamacare makes healthcare WORSE. The majority of likely voters and especially independents already recognize this. The sooner "progressives" admit that Health Care Deform made matters WORSE and get on board with repeal, the better they'll feel. The first step is admitting that progressives have a problem.

Obamacare was a mistake. America already knows it. Just admit it. You'll feel better when you stop PRETENDING otherwise.

Christian Liberty said...

Obamacare was a mistake just like Prohibition was a mistake. And America corrected that mistake. (Even though it required supermajorities: 2/3 vote in both houses and approval of 3/4 of state legislatures).

Obamacare is hugely unpopular just like Dan Rostenkowski's Catastrophic Health Act of 1989 was hugely unpopular. America made sure that Congress got the message. And the Democratic-led Congress led the charge to repeal their own bill.

Obamacare will be repealed, just like Prohibition was repealed.

Intelligent Democrats will renounce Obamacare, just like intelligent Democrats renounced the Rostenkowski bill.

Christian Liberty said...

One thing you have correct, Health Care Deform, is that "any part of the health care bill relate (sic) to each other .You can not take any part off"

There is reportedly no severability clause in Obamacare (likely because the coalition of support was so fragile that they could not abide any modifications). This means that any constitutional challenge can sink the ENTIRE bill!! (Thank God.)

Since the individual mandate clearly is an unconstitutional abuse of the "commerce clause" and contrary to the 5th, 9th, 10th, 14th, and 16th amendments, this means that federal courts will strike down the entire bill... if the Congress doesn't repeal Obamacare first.

Christian Liberty said...

Just how popular is REPEAL of Obamacare?

A MAJORITY of likely voters in deep-blue New Jersey favor REPEAL. And 41% of LV in NJ STRONGLY favor REPEAL.

(Keep in mind that support for REPEAL is even HIGHER nationally. Nationally 58% favor REPEAL and 50% STRONGLY favor repeal.)

A plurality of New Jersey voters also favor New Jersey suing the federal government to BLOCK Obamacare from even being implemented, challenging the very constitutionality of its mandate.

In New Jersey, 58% of INDEPENDENTS favor suing the federal government to assert that Obamacare is UNCONSTITUTIONAL. And 60% of INDEPENDENTS think REPEAL of Obamacare is "a good idea". And 56% of INDEPENDENTS deny that Obamacare is "good for the country".

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_state_surveys/new_jersey/51_in_new_jersey_favor_repeal_of_health_care_bill

Repealing Obamacare is an incredibly popular bandwagon. Republicans are certainly going to benefit from promoting repeal. Independents widely support repeal. And if Democrats know what's good for them, they would renounce Obamacare and support its repeal as well.

 
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