Tuesday, April 27, 2010

Some hope for Democrats

Things may look better for Democratic prospects in four key Senate races a month from now, once the party has chosen its nominees. That's because in Arkansas, North Carolina, Ohio, and Pennsylvania there are a lot more undecided Democrats than Republicans as hotly contested primaries play themselves out.

On average there are 7% more undecided Democrats than Republicans in those contests. Those folks coming home won't provide much immediate aid in Arkansas where Blanche Lincoln and Bill Halter were both well behind on our last poll, but in 50/50 races like Ohio and Pennsylvania it could make the difference between a slight Republican edge and a tie or a tie and a slight Democratic advantage. And it could pull Cal Cunningham or Elaine Marshall within the margin of error against Richard Burr and get folks really paying attention to what a legitimate opportunity the party has to play some offense in that state.

It's not a given that Democrats will come together and cause those races to tighten up a little bit once they're unified around a single candidate, but I think it's likely.

Here's the data on those races:

State

Race

Undecided Dems

Undecided Reps

Arkansas

Lincoln/Boozman

14

5

Arkansas

Halter/Boozman

19

6

North Carolina

Cunningham/Burr

23

13

North Carolina

Marshall/Burr

19

14

Ohio

Fisher/Portman

24

15

Ohio

Brunner/Portman

20

22

Pennsylvania

Specter/Toomey

11

9

Pennsylvania

Sestak/Toomey

26

15

5 comments:

Christian Liberty said...

Independents prefer Republicans. This is a landslide election in which undecideds will swing Republican.

Lincoln and Specter are not losing because Democrats are undecided; they are losing because Independents and Republicans are already decided. America is rejecting Democrats faster than they have in any previous election cycle in recent history. Which is why we can expect the landslide defeat of Democrats to be bigger than 1994 and likely the biggest defeat of Democrats since 1946.

Christian Liberty said...

When voters decide early, usually undecideds swing the same way (towards Republicans in 2010). Unless and until something enormous changes, the narrative of the election remains the same: independents, undecideds, (and those who usually are not involved in politics early on) are are awakening to the radicalness and tyranny of the Democrats, which is all the more frightening because the establishment media will coddle Democrat misbehavior while amplifying any little faux pas on the right.

dustin said...

Christian Liberty,

No offense, but you need to get a day job ! Please explain why your LOVELY REPUBLICAN'S, are so much against Wall-Street Reform!?!? I would wager to bet, that if this happens to continue, your Shady party of "no", may very well stay the minority party!

Christian Liberty said...

Republicans will win at least the Congress and the majority of governor seats, but likely the senate as well.

Christian Liberty said...

Republicans are the ones who would ACTUALLY reform bad practices. Democrats are the party of WRONG ideas. Republicans are doing the RIGHT THING by opposing left-wing lunacy.

Republicans are to be COMMENDED for opposing delusional left-wing ideas and the corrupt politics of the left.

Republicans are more trustworthy on Wall Street Reform than the left-wing party of Goldman Sachs will ever be.

 
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