Friday, April 23, 2010

Lynch under 50

New Hampshire Governor John Lynch isn't exactly in a dire position for reelection, but he's not likely to win by nearly the margins he posted in 2006 and 2008 this year.

Lynch leads John Stephen 47-36, Jack Kimball 47-35, and Karen Testerman 47-29 as he seeks his fourth term as Governor. He won by huge margins in the last couple elections because he enjoyed overwhelming support from independents and even won a decent amount of Republican support but those things aren't really the case anymore. He gets only 12-14% of the GOP vote against each of his potential opponents and although he continues to lead by 10-17 points with independents against each of them, it's a far cry from the 60 point advantage exit polls showed with them in 2008.

There are a lot more undecided Republicans in each of the three match ups than Democrats, suggesting the race could get even tighter once the GOP has settled on a nominee. 21-33% of Republicans voters aren't sure who they'll vote for yet this fall across the three matches to only 9-12% of Democrats who haven't made a decision yet.

Some of Lynch's diminished standing is attributable to voters simply not liking him as much as they did in the past, but it's also an indication that even a previously popular across party lines politician like him is not immune to the national trends. Republicans across the country right now are extremely unified around their party's candidates and loathe to support any Democrats. And independents are leaning considerably more toward the GOP than they were the last couple cycles and that's even touching Lynch.

Lynch still has to be seen as a strong favorite for reelection, but he won't come close to touching the 74% and 70% marks he received at the polls in 2006 and 2008.

Full results here

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