Democrats thought they received a break when Bill Brady surprisingly won the Republican nomination for Governor of Illinois, but with Pat Quinn's approval rating at just 25% it may not have mattered that much who the GOP put forward.
Brady leads Quinn 43-33 in our first poll of the general election. He's getting 80% of the Republican vote while Quinn earns just 53% of the Democratic vote, and he also has a 39-31 lead with independents.
Part of Quinn's problem within his own party is the same as that of Alexi Giannoulias- many Democrats who aren't too high on him aren't choosing a side for now. 28% of Democrats are undecided while only 13% of Republicans are. But Quinn is in a deeper hole than his party's Senate nominee because 19% of Democrats have already decided to support Brady for Governor compared to only 10% going for Mark Kirk against Giannoulias.
There were contentious primaries on both sides for Governor, but the numbers indicate that the Republicans have unified around Brady while Democrats are just as divided about Quinn as they were two months ago. Only 37% of voters in his party say they approve of the job the Governor is doing to 36% who disapprove, that 1 point net approval pretty much analogous to his one point victory in the primary. For Brady though 44% of Republicans now see him favorably, more than double the percentage of the vote he won in February, while only 11% have a negative opinion of him.
Overall 53% of Illinois voters disapprove of the job Quinn is doing to that 25% who approve. Beyond his tepid numbers with Democrats just 10% of Republicans give him good marks and independents go against him by a 23/54 margin.
Brady remains an unknown to most voters in the state. 55% have no opinion of him while 25% see him favorably and 20% negatively. Quinn's best hope is to absolutely destroy Brady's image with that majority of voters who are ambivalent toward him right now. But when an incumbent's disapproval is over 50% it's pretty hard for the election to end up being anything other than a referendum on himself. The GOP is favored to win this race.
Full results here
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9 comments:
As I expected and made much sense and very very similar to the Rasmussen poll from 3 weeks ago, R2k polls are so biased that the paper that it's written on isn't even worthy to be used for toilet paper
Seems to me like you ought to include Rich Whitney, the Green Party candidate, in your polling of IL-Gov. He got 10% of the vote in 2006, and in a year with two lame-ass candidates like Brady and Quinn, he might be a real factor.
If a majority of those polled did not even know who Bill Brady is, how can a majority of them support him? The fact that a plurality supported him in the poll is, likewise, essentially meaningless: It would suggest nothing about the outcome of the election!
Additionally, I agree with Will G. - you might have included the Green Party support in this poll: The implications you are making with your analysis suggest disaffected Democrats are trending toward the far-right candidate, which is a very unlikely voting behavior. Rather, you should have considered the extent to which disaffected Democrats are actually trending leftward toward Rich Whitney.
I think the left wing media has just about said everything they can about Brady the voters know who he is they don't believe the media that he's a far right candidate.
I think after the Blago/Quinn train wreck the voters are ready to believe Brady will do what he says which is fix the budget and help business rather then work to get a tax increase like Quinn is doing. The voters know Whitney can't fix the budget or help create jobs.
You maybe right more of the democrats may vote for Quinn putting Brady further ahead.
This is way tooooo many undecideds in the Ill polls you released. Perhaps there was some sampling error or breakdown, but I seriously doubt that nearly a third of the electorate is undecided on the gov or the senate race in Ill. Heck, the general election for both spots has been going hot and heavy for months (well before the primary).
This poll makes your earlier posts on this race - taking DailyKos as gospel and talking up Quinn's reelection chances - look ridiculous.
Try just writing up races objectively; repeating talking points and trying to drive a narrative are probably fun for the true believers but destroy your credibility in the long run.
Where is the other candidate that voters will see on the ballot in November - Rich Whitney? He got 360,000 votes in 2008 and will appear on the ballot again in November of 2010 - in just seven months. To say this is irresponsible is being kind to Public Policy Polling. This is not representative polling. What a sham and a sham pollster. How are we supposed to get an understanding of where the electorate is when they are not even asked about one of their viable options.
This poll only shows 54% of respondents voted for Obama in Illinois, while Obama got 62% there in 2008. That's a pretty hefty shift in your likely voter screen.
Vote Whitney! Vote Green! It makes sense and his platform could save Illinois workers and services.
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