Jane Norton looks like she could be the next in what's becoming a long line of NRSC supported candidates to not even win the primary. She leads Ken Buck just 31-26 in Colorado, a 12 point drop from the 34-17 lead she held in a PPP poll of the race two months ago.
Norton may be done in by grassroots conservatives just as Charlie Crist in Florida and Trey Grayson in Kentucky have been and just as Sue Lowden in Nevada and John McCain in Arizona may yet be. Buck actually leads Norton 34-30 with the Republicans who describe themselves as conservatives, with Norton's overall advantage coming thanks to a 32-12 lead with moderate voters.
Buck has seen a large gain in his favorability over the next two months while Norton's has actually declined. 32% of primary voters see him positively, an 11 point improvement from the 21% who did in March. Norton meanwhile has dropped from 41% to 34%.
Norton's not dead but the trajectory does not bode well for her prospects, and other establishment Republicans this cycle who have seen their numbers begin to erode have not been able to stop the bleeding. This will be very interesting to watch but for now I'd put my dollar on Buck winning this one.
Scott McInnis in the Governor's race has also seen his lead start to erode, but his advantage is large enough that he shouldn't have too much cause to worry. He leads Dan Maes 50-15. That represents a 15 point reduction from the 58-8 edge he had in March. Still a 35 point deficit will be close to impossible for Maes to overcome.
Full results here