The likely Rand Paul victory in the Kentucky Republican primary today should give Democrats a very good chance of winning in the fall because supporters of Trey Grayson, Paul's main opponent, really don't like him.
Some primaries play out in such a way that party loyalists view several of the candidates favorably and just choose the one they like best. That was very much the case with the recent Democratic contest in North Carolina. But in Kentucky we find that Paul's supporters hate Grayson, and that even more Grayson's supporters hate Paul.
53% of likely Grayson voters for today have an unfavorable opinion of Paul to only 23% with a positive opinion of him. More importantly though just 40% of Grayson voters say they'll support Paul in the general election if he wins the Republican nomination with 43% explicitly saying they will not.
Paul is going to have some serious work to do to unify his party around him, especially because his supporters have gone out of their way to poke Grayson (and by extension his voters) in the eye. Whether the Democratic nominee is Dan Mongiardo or Jack Conway there's going to be an opportunity to pick up the Republican voters necessary to pull an upset this fall. Democrats winning in Kentucky in a tough political climate for the party is not something you would expect- but neither is Republicans winning in Massachusetts in any political climate. 2010 is really shaping up as the year of the unexpected in politics.
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18 comments:
Not sure what you mean about Paul's supporters poking Grayson in the eye. Paul has run a positive campaign, it has been Grayson that has tried smearing Paul.
Maybe I missed something Paul supporters have done other than enthusiastically support Paul. Any explanation?
Good analysis for what the polls show at this point.
However, given a choice between handing President Obama another Senator, and holding their noses to vote for Rand Paul -- it's going to be a pretty easy decision for most Kentucky Republicans. And, quite a few Democrats and Independents, for that matter.
Ask the PUMAs how that "absolutely will not vote for in November" thing went.
"Paul is going to have some serious work to do to unify his party around him, especially because his supporters have gone out of their way to poke Grayson (and by extension his voters) in the eye."
This is absolutely unsubstantiated. It is Grayson's camp that has repeatedly smeared Paul and Paul supporters while Paul has run a positive campaign.
It was Grayson who targeted Rand Paul's "strange ideas" and labeled Rand "kooky". Rand has done no such thing. As Grayson lost throwing a temper tantrum, Rand won with class and humility.
Grayson supporters , do they approve of Paul's policies ?
People disapprove of Obama's policies and approve of his personality.
Policy is important.
As one of those Grayson supporters who will not vote for Paul in November, I have found without looking very hard many examples of Paul's lies and deceit. I can't imagine what "dream world" Rob lives in if he believes the Paul campaign has run a postive campaign. Nothing could be further from the truth. The Dems will carry the Senate seat in November if Paul is nominated today.
Folks,
Kentucky has not voted for a democrat president in the last 3 election cycles and also, it almost elects all the republicans for the congress and Senate. You add this to the climate were people are mad at democrats in washington DC, it is very highly unlikely that a democrat will be elected in november because of the primaries.
If that is the hypothesis, can we assume that democratic candidate for NC US senate will most likely loose in november because of the the drama of the primaries? No, it is going to be a close race between Richard Burr and the democratic candidate.
Rob, Paul's supporters have absolutely been poking Grayson and his supporters in the eye lately. I've seen Paulbots doing it right here on this blog. Anyone who actually knows enough about what Paul really stands for, and opposes him for that reason, has been labelled a paid shill by the Paulbots. Maybe it's just the usual Paulbot tendancy toward paranoia and not any deliberate effort to poke anyone in the eye, but it's insulting and it has the same effect.
I'd also disagree with what the first Anonymous commenter said. Grayson's supporters know that Paul is a libertarian kook and that as such he will not be a reliable conservative vote in the Senate. He'd vote against defending our ally Israel from Iran, for example.
It won't take a mere nose-hold to get Grayson's supporters to vote for Paul. It'll take nothing short of a full hazmat suit.
I for one wouldn't vote for either of the Pauls if they were the last Republicans on Earth.
Personally I hope Paul loses to Mongiardo in a landslide. It'll be a much-needed lesson for conservatives and Republicans everywhere: don't let the Paulbots and Libertarians hijack your party or your movement.
I agree. As a former Johnson/Grayson supporter, I will not vote or support Paul in November. At least you know what you are getting voting for a democrat. Yeah, it's that bad. The neonazi Paul supporters scare the snot out of me and many fellow Kentuckians. Paul's arrogance may be his undoing. Not calling off his attack dogs and David Adams just made his campaign shady and creepy to outsiders. I am one that hopes all the extreme Kokesh/Nazi/libertarian muck comes out in the coming months. The man is far from Republican.
Grayson was soundly defeated, not only statewide but in his own home county.
You know are a conservative if the first thing you mention in your comment is the anger you have for the "democrats in washington dc."
I think your opinion is a bit biased toward Paul from the beginning, so why even ask/comment? If all you are going to say is "we are going to take back..." and "The People are mad at ..." then you have done nothing but listened/watched to talk-radio/TV too much.
Form your own opinions..geez.
So Greyson Republicans would sooner see a lefty Democrat be elected by their state to a critically needed Senate seat rather than hold their noses and vote for Paul? Good heavens, I hope not!
OMG .. Oh oh .. I can't believe it. Listen to what Obama said about closing Gitmo. The Ds are sunk.
Obama advocates closing the terrorist detention facility at Guantanamo Bay and releasing suspected terrorists back into battle in Afghanistan:
“ … it’s kind of unclear whether these people are guilty, not guilty … So I really think deportation or sending them back to their country of origin might be the best way to go. And none of it’s fair, because some of them have been held years and years …” – (Alex Jones Show, YouTube video, 5/21/09)
“I think they should mostly be sent back to their country of origin or to tell you the truth I’d drop them back off into battle … you’re unclear, drop ‘em off back into Afghanistan. It’d take them a while to get back over here.”
OOPS NO. THAT WAS THE GUY THE TEA PARTY JUST VOTED FOR IN KENTUCKY!!!
Read that last line again: It'd take them a while to get back over here.
(YouTube video of Rand Paul speaking in Paducah, KY, 5/8/09)
Do you seriously think that Kentucky conservatives are going to vote for this guy over a moderate Democrat?
Lunacy, courtesy of the TP.
Fred said...
Don't count the Dems out in Nov. We are Wildcat Blue not Duke Blue Devils.
Better a "lefty Democrat" than a kooky "Republican" whose foreign policy is not to have a foreign policy.
Are you guys kidding? Conway is liberal?
Support mandatory jail sentences for selling illegal drugs.
Allow citizens to carry concealed guns.
Prohibit the procedure of cloning human embryos.
Establish English as the official U.S. language.
Should the U.S. have full diplomatic relations with Cuba? NO
Should the U.S. hold nations accountable for terrorists who operate from their country?YES
Should the President have "fast-track" authority to negotiate trade agreements? NO
Do you support the President using military tribunals to try terrorist suspects when the President deems ordinary civil courts to be inappropriate or impractical? YES
.....
He's got some stuff that drive the TP's crazy but, this guy is not liberal.
He couldn't get elected dog catcher in MA
On the left-right scale, it's hard to pin down Rand Paul because he does have a wide variety of positions, some of which (like advocating immediately closing Gitmo, or getting out of Afghanistan) are traditionally considered 'leftist' ideas. It makes the usual left-right dichotomy harder to filter the election through. Instead, there's the radical-conservative spectrum, where 'radical' wants to implement large-scale changes to society (left or right) and 'conservative' generally wants to keep society the way it is today. In this respect, Conway has the Kentucky advantage of being the 'conservative' in the race, while he can target Paul's proposals as being dangerous and ill-conceived radical changes to people's lives. People want to change Washington, but keep stability in their own lives. Rand Paul wants to drastically alter the lifestyles of all Americans.
Enough voters rallied behind Rand Paul after the primaries to give Paul a 25 point lead over Conway.
Paul 59%, Conway 34%
RR conducted May 19
73% of independents support Paul over Conway
Paul very favorable 33
very unfavorable 14
Conway very favorable 15
very unfavorable 20
"most conservative Democrats" (15% of likely electorate) also prefer Rand Paul over the Democrat.
"In Kentucky, 65% favor repeal of (health care deform) law and just 29% are opposed."
Paul got the better post-primary bounce. The next question is if Conway can get more support from Democrats (only 59% of Democrats support Conway) or Independents (73% of Independents prefer Rand Paul).
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/kentucky/election_2010_kentucky_senate
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