Sunday, May 2, 2010

Marshall expands lead, many still undecided

A shift among black voters has allowed Elaine Marshall to expand her lead in the closing days of the North Carolina Democratic Senate primary, but with 33% of voters still undecided it remains unclear who will come out ahead on Tuesday night.

Marshall leads Cal Cunningham 28-21, a week after she led 26-23. Marshall is now up 21-12 with black voters, a turnaround after Cunningham had led the previous three polls in that demographic including a 19-13 advantage in last week's survey. Cunningham has been under attack by the leading African American candidate in the race, Kenneth Lewis, and whether the change in the last seven days is because of that or Marshall going on the air with television advertisements it's made a difference in the race.

The news isn't all bad for Cunningham though. 70% of his voters are firmly committed to him, compared to 60% of Marshall's who say the same of her. In what's likely to be a very low turnout race having the most passionate supporters could really make a difference. Also, the largest amount of undecided voters are in the greater Charlotte area where Cunningham is running television ads and Marshall is not.

It continues to be clear that this is a two person race. Lewis leads the second tier contenders with 9%, followed by Marcus Williams at 4%, Ann Worthy at 3%, and Susan Harris at 2%.

There continues to be a very strong chance of a runoff election. If the undecideds make up their minds in proportion to their current preferences Marshall would lead Cunningham 42-32, but there's no guarantee that will happen and either way it wouldn't take much for 42% to slip down to 39%. Among voters who are firmly committed Marshall leads Cunningham 41-36, putting her even more perilously close to dropping below the 40% mark. The biggest suspense on Tuesday night may not be about who's in the lead, but about whether that leader can inch over 40.

And how would things shake out in a runoff? Marshall would begin as the favorite, leading Cunningham 43-32. Kenneth Lewis' supporters say they would go for her by a 47-32 margin in such a contest.

Although Tuesday's primary hasn't drawn anywhere near the attention the 2008 one did with contests for President, Governor, and the Senate it may provide something that election night didn't- drama. The polling was lopsided enough that it was clear what the results of all those races would be well before the polls closed. That's not the case this time around.

Full results here

9 comments:

Anonymous said...

Tom, did you ask the undecideds whom they're leaning to? If yes then why so much undecideds, if not (more likely), indeed why not?? Please clarify. Thanks for your great work now and all the time! I appreciate it very much and admire your integrity and honesty. P.S. Also kudos for me not being able to guess whom you're voting for, shows objectivity.

Anonymous said...

... continued.... Still I think that you are voting for Cunningham

Anonymous said...

Marshall was was SOS since 1996 and won 4 statewide elections. Cunningham was elected state senator in 2000 and quit after 2 years. Who do you think deserves to win the primary.

Anonymous said...

Tom,

How have so many people in 828 heard KL's radio when it hasn't even played there.

How have 49% of people in 336 seen Elaine's ad (which has played for maybe 3 days), while 44% have seen Cal's ad (which has played for 13 days)?

Also, when something like 55% of people cite the economy as their top issue, why is there a majority of people who think it is improving? That just doesn't seem logical or realistic.

But, then again, maybe I am just nitpicking.

Christian Liberty said...

61% of NC LV want Obamacare REPEALED.

Unless the Democrat openly calls for repeal, like three-fifths of North Carolinians want, the Democrat is wasting their time.

Repealing Obamacare is enormously popular, Democrats, because it is unambiguously the right thing to do. Either embrace REPEAL or anticipate your DEFEAT.

Jake said...

Burr has been in Washington for 16 years, and I doubt most North Carolinians can name much of anything he has done for the people. But I know I can name some things he has done that have hurt the people. Burr told his his wife to do a bank run as a response to the recession, he voted against Franken's anti-rape amendment, he voted for domestic violence to remain a pre-existing condition, he held up Tammy Duckworth's nomination for a key post in the Department of Veterans Affairs as a part of greater obstructionism efforts, he canceled a Senate Armed Services hearing where generals had traveled from Hawaii & Korea to speak as a part of greater obstructionism efforts, and he backed out of a debate he agreed to with Ken Lewis back early on. But perhaps the most damning evidence is that he met with representatives of Goldman Sachs, they maxed out their allowed contribution to his re-election campaign, and he now opposes Wall Street reform.

Secretary Marshall on the other hand has a track record of serving the people and taking on Wall Street, corruption, and special interests at the state level. And Cunningham has served NC as a State Senator and in the military. I don't see how anyone could support Burr over either of these 2 at this point.

Christian Liberty said...

Jake, opposing Obamacare alone makes Burr superior to any Democrat.

And Franken's tyrannical and cynical attack on the rights of private companies to extradite legal issues with arbitration DESERVED to be blocked. Franken is a cynical THUG for pushing that nonsense. Burr was ABSOLUTELY right to oppose Franken.

And Democrats' tyrannical assault on Wall Street DESERVES to be opposed and blocked. Burr is DEFINITELY the better choice. No doubt about it. Democrats' "reform" gives the administration tyrannical powers to nationalize industry that MUST be blocked in order to preserve liberty, prosperity, and justice in America.

http://www.docstoc.com/docs/23808095/Language-of-Financial-Reform/

http://thehill.com/opinion/columnists/dick-morris/92019-obamas-terrible-powers

When confronted with evil (Democrats' plans), "obstruction" is not just morally good, it is morally required. All moral people would oppose Democrats' financial "reform".

Burr for Senate!!!

Anonymous said...

Elaine Marshall and Cal Cunningham might as well pack it up and go home. They're wasting both their time and money beating up on one another. All kidding aside, Richard Burr is going to win this one by double digits - going away. North Carolinans are in no way likely to elect a Democrat this year. So, lets move on.

dustin said...

NC is not as conservative,as a lot may think. Burr may very well, lose. It will be close, but once everyone in the state realizes how he has voted, either Dem candidate will most likely win.

Christian Liberty- Please read up more on NC politics, and our voting population, before posting on this blog. Thanks! ( Hint: just do not go by Ramussen) (You need to read more PPP/Elon/Civitas)

 
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