Thursday, May 20, 2010

Knotted up in CO-Gov

The race for Governor in Colorado is now tied, just a couple months after John Hickenlooper initially posted a large lead in the contest. Hickenlooper and Scott McInnis are getting 44% each.

It's not hard to pinpoint where voter perceptions of Hickenlooper are changing. Among people who voted for Barack Obama in 2008 his favorability is 75/9, virtually identical to the 76/10 he posted in March. But among McCain voters his net favorability has dropped 28 points, from a respectable 30/42 spread to now 18/58. Hickenlooper's run for statewide office as a Democrat seems to be costing him some of his crossover popularity with Republicans and conservative leaning independents.

Hickenlooper remains far more popular than anyone else running for office in Colorado this year at a 47/33 favorability spread. There's been little change in how voters view Scott McInnis. 31% see him favorably to 30% unfavorably, with the 39% plurality still having no opinion about him. His name recognition is ticking up ever so slightly- in March 44% of voters had no opinion about him.

One thing there continues to be no doubt about is that it's a very good thing for Democrats that Bill Ritter retired. His approval numbers have just gotten worse since he announced that he wouldn't run for reelection, and now just 34% of voters think he's doing a good job to 52% who say they disapprove of him. With independents his numbers are particularly bad- 30% approve to 53% who do not.

The biggest question when it comes to this race is whether all those typically non-Democratic voters who like Hickenlooper will choose him. Right now the answer is no. McInnis is winning 79% of Republicans while Hickenlooper is winning 78% of Democrats and independents are pretty closely knotted with McInnis getting 46% and 42%. That's the recipe for a very close race moving forward.

Full results here


Anonymous said...

Tom, how much does it cost to do each poll for PPP, I'm thinking about donating some money.

Christian Liberty said...

Most recent Rasmussen has McInnis leading by 6, and leading with independents. (McInnis also leads with independents in PPP poll 46-42... and with seniors, 53%-35%.)

Since then (conducted May 11) strong disapproval of Obama has been trending upward again. Disapproval of Obama rates as high as it has been in a month... and net disapproval rates as high as it has in almost two months (since the lows as Congress was ramming through a healthScare bill that America obviously opposed.)

So it makes sense that as the likely electorate is more negative on Obama, McCain voters are more skeptical of other Democrat candidates... especially when 55% of Colorado likely voters favor an immigration law like that in Arizona (Ras conducted May 3).

Anonymous said...

An 11 point bump is pretty significant. It looks like Hickenlooper is going to have a very difficult time overcoming the severe rightward swing happening in Colorado this year. My guess is that with his fundraising he'll keep it close, but I have a hard time seeing how he will beat McInnis. I think that, barring a major shift in voter sentiment, Colorado will be going Republican all over the place in November.

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