Tuesday, May 4, 2010

Marshall favored in runoff

Elaine Marshall will begin the runoff election against Cal Cunningham strongly favored. On our final pre-primary poll, which proved to be pretty accurate in predicting tonight's results, we also asked about a potential runoff election. Marshall led Cunningham 43-32. Among supporters of Kenneth Lewis, Marcus Williams, Susan Harris, and Ann Worthy 51% said they'd go for Marshall in a potential runoff to just 27% who expressed an intention to shift their support to Cunningham.

The early runoff poll particularly suggested that black voters would move their allegiances from Lewis or Williams to Marshall in a runoff contest. While Marshall led Cunningham just 21-12 among black voters for the primary, that lead expanded to 51-24 with them for a runoff. Cunningham is going to have to significantly improve his appeal to black voters over the next seven weeks if he's going to have any chance in the second contest.

So far the DSCC has implicitly supported Cunningham without sending any money his way. If that continues to be their approach it is virtually impossible to see Cunningham winning a runoff election. If they want him to be the Democratic nominee they're going to have to put some money- perhaps a lot of money- behind that desire over the next seven weeks. But for now Marshall looks like a strong favorite.

7 comments:

Anonymous said...

I hope Marshall wins the run-off. Cal is awful, he quite being in the state senate after two years. How in the world is he qualified to be a US senator.

Bryan said...

A runoff for a partisan primary? That sounds like a waste of money. This and the Hawai'i race should put a kibosh that Dems are not ripping each other apart.

Anonymous said...

Tom, you did a great job with your pretty (not very) accurate results in NC, but it has to be pointed out and I hope others will too, SurveyUSA was dead wrong in 3 of their primary polls, IN-03 they showed close and Souder won easily, OH-Sen they showed Fisher winning easily and it wasn't so and their IN-Sen poll was also totally off.

Anonymous said...

Continued.... There has to be accountabiity in polls and if no one will point it out, you have to, for the sake of that people don't remember and then trust inaccurate polls, they might have been right in '08 but now they were dead wrong in all polls (maybe only primary problem) and it has to be pointed out. Thanks

Anonymous said...

Quinnipiac was also dead wrong in their OH-Sen poll! Makes me question their PA-Sen poll if they were so much off in OH. These things have to be pointed out. You were quite accurate (also not very, but still better than others in IL, but still in TX you were wrong, but again you didn't poll in the last week).

Anonymous said...

What about the troubles of Kissell and Shuler in the dem primary?

They vote not to the Health Care Reform.

Anonymous said...

Elaine Marshall is the most progressive candidate. She is the only one who advocates bringing all of our troops home. She is also a staunch supporter of lgbt rights. She is also the most likely to defeat Burr. Cal Cunningham should drop out and endorse Marshall to save the Dems the expense of a pointless runoff. Of course, his backers from out of state will likely to encourage him to do just the opposite. If so it will probably mean the one senate the dems could likely pick off will remain in the hands of the GOP.

 
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