We're going to do a final PA-12 poll over the weekend.
There are a lot of reasons, from our last poll of the district, why Republicans should win this race:
1) Barack Obama's approval rating there is just 33%
2) The district has a very low minority population and nonwhite voters have been sticking with the Democratic Party to a much greater extent than white voters over the last year.
3) Only 24% of voters there have a favorable opinion of Nancy Pelosi.
4) Republican voters in the district are more excited about voting than the Democrats.
But there's also one big reason why the Democrats may just pull it out- and why Republicans may not have as big an election year as we're anticipating. And that's because only 26% of voters in the district have a favorable opinion of Congressional Republicans, with 56% seeing them unfavorably. Voters there aren't real happy with the Democrats, but the Republican Party hasn't provided much of an alternative either and that's going to make Tuesday night very interesting.
We plan to have our final PA-12 poll results out late Sunday night.