Monday, August 23, 2010

Florida Senate Preview

Kendrick Meek is headed for a big win in tomorrow's Democratic primary in Florida but the real winner from the night's results might be Marco Rubio.

In the general election Senate numbers we'll release tomorrow Charlie Crist has a 24 point lead over Jeff Greene with Democrats. But he trails Kendrick Meek by a point with them. It's hard to see a path to victory for Crist without winning the Democratic vote.

The last time we polled the race Crist had a 9 point lead over Meek with Democrats, but Meek's primary campaign has had the impact of increasing his support for the general election within his own party.

Stay tuned for those numbers tomorrow.


Anonymous said...

So now we have Mason-Dixon, PPP and Rasmussen saying that Rubio is ahead, (only Quinnipiac that only polls registered voters has Crist ahead) and everyone is busy speaking like a Crist victory is assured and that it's a big defeat for GOP. I also think that if McCollum does win primary tomorrow, GOP will come together for the fall, not so much with Scott.

Anonymous said...

Wouldn't it be logical that some of Crist's support will be pulled away in both directions? If Meek has a strong showing it is likely some of Crist's Democrat support will shift to the official Democrat nominee. Same thing with Rubio. Once Rubio is officially the GOP nominee some of the Republican hold-outs for Crist will come home and support the party candidate. I don't think Crist will be as strong in November as he has been in the Summer. But I could see that race going to a run-off and I don't know how Florida does their run-offs.

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