Too close to call on the Republican side

The Republican races for both Senator and Governor in Colorado are too close to call, with our final polling results well within the margin of error.

In the Senate race Jane Norton leads Ken Buck 45-43, the first lead Norton's posted in independent polling in quite a while. The closeness between Norton and Buck reflects a GOP electorate divided about the direction of the party. Among voters who think the party's too liberal, which account for 39% of the electorate, Buck leads 53-41. But with the smaller groups that think the party is ideologically about right or even too conservative, which account for 35% and 15% of the voters respectively, Norton has leads of 51-36 and 52-34.

Closely related is a division by whether the voters consider themselves to be members of the Tea Party or not. With the 35% who do Buck holds a 48-41 lead. With the 47% who do not Norton holds a 48-41 lead.

35% of Colorado Republicans think their party is generally headed in the right direction. They support Norton by a 49-41 margin. 41% think it's headed in the wrong direction and they go for Buck 47-43.

Clearly Colorado Republicans are divided in many ways and pretty much down the middle and with Norton representing one faction within the party and Buck another tomorrow night should be very close.

The race for Governor finds Scott McInnis with 41% and Dan Maes at 40%. The big question may be how much it even matters who the Republican nominee is though. That's because Tom Tancredo is more popular with GOP voters than either of the party's actual candidates for Governor. 44% have a favorable opinion of Tancredo compared to 38% for Maes and 36% for McInnis. One particularly bad sign for McInnis is that his favorability numbers are at a net negative even within the GOP electorate, at 36/40. That doesn't bode too well for the general election if he was somehow still able to make it through.

It may be a late night in Colorado.

Full results here