We're going to have our newest North Carolina Senate poll numbers out tomorrow, and Richard Burr's approval rating in our surveys has hit a new record low at 32% with 44% of voters disapproving of him.
That -12 approval spread for Burr represents an 18 point drop since last August when he stood at +6 (38/32). Burr is suffering from the exact same issues as all the Democratic incumbents who are in trouble- Democrats dislike him (62%) more than Republicans like him (57%) and independents split against him by a 45/33 margin as well.
Burr's drop in popularity compared to a year ago has come across the board. He's down 20 points with Democrats (from -29 to -49), 11 points with Republicans (from +51 to +40), and 10 points with independents (from -2 to -12.)
What does that add up to for Burr's standing against Elaine Marshall? We'll have the answer tomorrow.
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7 comments:
So how much did the Marshall campaign pay you for this poll? I hope you guys were decent enough to do this pro bono. It's not like she has much money to spend.
"...split against him by a 45/33 margin."
How can they "split against" him by giving him a positive approval rating?
Hey Anon, how much did the Burr campaign pay you to post that comment? I hear they've got a lot of money to burn. :)
It should be noted that several polls show only people with a lower approval rating than congressional Democrats is congressional Republicans.
"How can they "split against" him by giving him a positive approval rating?"
They don't. 33% approve, and 45% disapprove.
"It should be noted that several polls show only people with a lower approval rating than congressional Democrats is congressional Republicans."
Our polls have shown that too.
Burr now has the second-lowest approval rating among Republican Senators up for re-election, after John McCain, and the third-lowest overall after McCain and Blanche Lincoln. McCain should win in the end, and Lincoln will get blown out, but while Burr is still favored to win, it'll be a close one, and in any other year, particularly 2008, he'd be in the extinct list, not just endangered.
Tom,
Interesting! While focusing so much on approval numbers, you apparently forgot to mention who's actually leading in the race for Burr's Senate seat. So I thought I might help you out a little.
According to Rasmussen, Burr is leading Marshall by a 52-37 margin. In that same poll, Burr's VERY favorable/unfavorable numbers are at 20/13, while Marshall's are at 14/18.
According to 538, Burr is projected to retain his Senate seat, with an 82% probability.
SurveyUSA has Burr leading by 10%, at 46-36, while Real Clear Politics has their RCP average at 9.2% Burr.
Your welcome.
This is a great audition for the Daily Kos. One piece of advise Tommy - ask for a money order.
Gehraty owned you yesterday at NRO. PPP is now officially a joke.
Don't worry though. Come mid-October, Tommy will "find" the GOP surge.
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