Thursday, August 26, 2010

Obama in the Swing States

Barack Obama expanded the map in 2008 but for the most part you're still going to find Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania as the most important states at the Presidential level because of their size and competitiveness and Obama's numbers in those places right now are brutal.

The trend is the same in all three states: independents are very unhappy with Obama and Republicans dislike him more than Democrats like him. And although part of the reason his numbers are so bad in these states is that they model a 2010 electorate, the polls also show him losing far more of his 2008 voters than picking up support from folks who went for John McCain.

-In Florida Obama's approval is 39% with 55% of voters disapproving of him. 88% of Republicans disapprove while just 73% of Democrats approve and independents go against him by a 52/36 margin. Only 78% of people who voted for him in 2008 like the job he's doing while 93% who voted against him disapprove.

-In Pennsylvania Obama's approval is 40% with 55% of voters disapproving of him. 85% of Republicans disapprove while just 68% of Democrats approve and independents go against him by a 63/32 margin. Only 78% of people who voted for him in 2008 like the job he's doing while 93% who voted against him disapprove, identical numbers to Florida on that count.

-In Ohio Obama's approval is 42% with 54% of voters disapproving of him. 94% of Republicans disapprove while only 79% of Democrats approve and independents go against him by a 58/33 margin. Only 76% of people who voted for him in 2008 approve while 91% who voted against him disapprove.

Obviously it's a long way from 2012 but these swing state numbers for Obama are pretty brutal and underscore why Democrats could lose a whole lot of House seats this year in those states.

9 comments:

Anonymous said...

The point that I'm not sure you people realize is that approval and disapproval are not accurate indicators of electability. A lot of the disapproval numbers are angry progressives that are going to vote for him anyway.

DBL said...

In most states, candidates can't win by just relying on Obama voters. I thought Florida might be different, as Meek doesn't need as many votes. Even that will be a long shot for Meek if, as you indicate, Obama voters are only 45% of the electorate. Meek is picking up virtually no McCain voters or non-voters/someone else. If Meek got 80% of the Obama voters, he'd need Rubio to only get about 65% of the McCain voters to have a chance.

Charlie Crist is unlikely to pull in 35% of the McCain voters, let alone Meek pull in 80% of the Obama voters. Meek will have to appeal to some McCain/non-voters to even have a chance.

Anonymous said...

These are old Ohio numbers right? Not your upcoming Ohio poll.

Tom Jensen said...

Yes, June poll

Anonymous said...

Things aren't looking good in Michigan either. The virtually unknown repub candidate for governor here is 22pts up over our Democratic nominee. And that's even with full labor union backing. Even mainstays in Michigan, like Sander Levin, is having to put a bit more effort into campaigning this year for fear that there is a surprise upset. Get outside of Detroit and the enviroment is rather toxic for Democrats right now.

Citizen Grim said...

"A lot of the disapproval numbers are angry progressives that are going to vote for him anyway."

Perhaps, although a lot of voters angry with their own party aren't motivated to turn out and vote. This is why Bush had so much trouble in his second term - his approval numbers dipped so low because so many Republicans thought he was acting like to much of a free-spending compromising centrist. They still preferred him to the alternative, but not enough to get out and work on his behalf.

Anonymous said...

The political map in 2012 is going to look more like 2004 and 2000 than 2008. Obama was able to expand the map in his favor, but in 2012 it will have contracted. He'll have to win the more traditional way with the left coast, northeast and a few upper midwestern states sprinkled in to get to 270.

Christian Liberty said...

" And that's even with full labor union backing."

Inquiring minds read:
U.S. Approval of Labor Unions Remains Near Record Low

Democrats are failing "even with full labor union backing" because Americans' disapproval of labor unions is near 70-year highs... and approval of labor unions in near 70-year lows.

If Democrats are counting on labor unions to prop up their failing campaigns, they are stuck on the failed policies and failed politics of the past. Accept it: labor unions and Democrats are the dying past (thank God!) ... and Republicans and RIGHT TO WORK and entrepreneurialism is the future.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/142007/Americans-Approval-Labor-Unions-Remains-Near-Record-Low.aspx

Jonny V said...

Remember where Clinton and Reagan were at this point in their Presidencies?

They were both at 41% approval nationally. Obama is currently at 43% (Gallup.)

Obama Higher Approval Than Reagan or Clinton.

 
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