Wednesday, August 4, 2010

NC supports convention

Most North Carolinians are excited about the prospect of the 2012 Democratic convention coming to the state. 58% say they'd like to see it happen to 23% who are opposed and 20% who don't have an opinion.

Democrats are particularly excited about the possibility, saying by a 79-8 margin they'd like to host the convention. There's support from a majority of independents as well, 50/29. Republicans are narrowly opposed to the possibility of the convention coming, 33/39. But it's worth noting that in the greater Charlotte region where the event would actually be held GOP voters are supportive of it by a 43/32 margin.

Because it's easily the state's most Democratic region voters in the Triangle express the highest level of support for bringing the convention at 66/21. But Charlotte is not far behind at 64/24 support and that's particularly impressive given that Barack Obama's 42% approval rating in the greater Mecklenburg area matches his lowest number anywhere in the state.

Will Obama's prospects for winning North Carolina again in 2012 improve if the convention comes to the state? I doubt it. Our Colorado poll immediately in the aftermath of the 2008 Denver convention showed Barack Obama ahead by only one point in the state. That was our only Colorado survey the entire cycle showing Obama ahead by less than 4 there. When we asked people specifically what impact hosting the convention had on their voting preferences 84% said it didn't make a difference one way or the other while 6% said it made them more likely to vote Democratic and 9% said it made them less likely to vote Democratic.

Bringing the convention to Charlotte may not guarantee another victory in the state for Obama, but the poll numbers make it clear it's at least one thing North Carolinians would be happy with the Democrats about.

Full results here

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