A lot of Senate races are heading in the wrong direction for Democrats right now but California is not one of them. PPP's newest poll there finds Barbara Boxer continuing to hold onto a 50-42 lead over Carly Fiorina.
Republicans showed in Massachusetts they could win in a state as blue as California but Carly Fiorina isn't proving to have nearly the appeal to Democratic and independent voters that Scott Brown did. Fiorina is winning independents 50-38, a solid margin but well short of the 32 point advantage Brown achieved with those folks against Martha Coakley. And Fiorina is winning only 11% of Democrats, barely half of the 19% Brown got.
Californians are pretty ambivalent toward Barbara Boxer and ambivalence is usually going to get an incumbent in a deep blue state reelected- it takes Jon Corzine sorts of approval numbers to lose in those places. 46% of voters approve of the job Boxer's doing and 46% disapprove. Republicans don't like her at all and independents don't like her very much either, but she continues to be very popular with the Democratic base and if you're strong there in California you win.
And the simple reality is that Fiorina has not proven to be a particularly appealing candidate to California voters. 42% of them see her unfavorably with only 34% rating her positively. Republicans like her, Democrats dislike her almost as much, and independents are slightly negative toward her. Again, not the formula that's going to get a Republican elected to the Senate from California.
One other factor that should be noted here is that Boxer is just about the only vulnerable Democrat seeking reelection in a state where the majority of voters still approve of Barack Obama's performance. His approval is 53/42, and by and large the folks that like Obama are supporting Boxer- California's one of the last frontiers left where he's not a drag.
It's certainly still not impossible Boxer could lose. But it's looking more like this year will be the same old story as Boxer's other reelection runs- hints of vulnerability early, getting it together at the end.
Full results here