One thing that really struck me in our Delaware polling numbers was that on a lot of measures Mike Castle actually appeared to be in even worse shape than Lisa Murkowski:
-55% of primary voters said they thought Castle was too liberal. For Murkowski on our post primary poll in Alaska that was only 47%.
-Castle's favorability was a negative 43/47. On the similar although not identical measure of approval we still found Murkowski on slightly positive ground even after her primary loss at 48/46.
-35% of primary voters in Delaware said they were positively influenced by a Sarah Palin endorsement, only 26% said the same in Alaska.
-25% of Delaware Republicans say they consider themselves to be members of the Tea Party movement. Only 18% said the same in Alaska.
A lot of these differences can probably be chalked up to Delaware having a closed primary and Alaska an open one. 64% of primary voters in Delaware identified themselves as conservatives to 59% in Alaska.
There's a pretty wide range of outcomes that would not surprise me tomorrow given the difficulties of polling a Republican electorate in a small blue state. It would be no shock if Castle hangs on to win but when you look at the internal numbers and compare them to Murkowski I also wouldn't be all that surprised if O'Donnell ends up winning by 10.