Monday, September 20, 2010

West Virginia Senate Poll Preview

WWe're going to have our first look out at the West Virginia Senate race tomorrow and I think there's some chance that could end up being the most fascinating contest of the cycle.

On one hand you have Democrats with their best recruit anywhere in the country. Joe Manchin's 59% approval rating on our poll over the weekend represented the second best we've found for any Governor all year.

On the other hand you have a state where voters, even a lot of the Democrats, are very down on national Democrats and want Republicans to control the next Congress by a 54-37 margin.

A lot of voters fall into both of those categories- they love Joe Manchin and they want Republicans to control the next Congress. This race may be decided by those voters being pulled in both directions and right now their dislike of national Democrats is outweighing their affection for Manchin- those folks go for John Raese 57-29. It's going to be interesting to see how this race develops.

14 comments:

Anonymous said...

So Manchin would roughly need to have a lead of 35% with people who want the dems to control congress or are neutral in order to lead in poll.

wt said...

Manchin has been so popular because he's divorced himself from national Democrats. That's tougher this year than it's been in previous years, and it may be even tougher in 2 years if he's up for re-election, with a Senate voting record.

Also, it will be interesting to see people spin PPP's purported left-wing bias and Rasmussen's purported right-wing bias if your WV shows it closer than Rasmussen does (7 points as of today).

Chuck T said...

Look at all those who think your CA poll is crap suddenly show up and applaud this poll. I think WVA will be close. I was surprised that RAS had the dem ahead by as much as he did (7 points), but WVA has always been a huge anti-Obama state even in 2008, so I think that whoever wins here will win by 2 or 3 points.

Anonymous said...

Did you do governor for 2012? I heard you weren't going to do the House races...

DBL said...

If Manchin loses he's still the governor. You can get your Republican Senator and keep Manchin where you like him.

Demosthenes said...

The wisdom (and comedy stylings) of Chuck T:

"...WVA has always been a huge anti-Obama state even in 2008..."

Always, huh? You mean during, like, the three-plus years and ONE national election they've been exposed to him, they've always been anti-Obama. For that WHOLE length of time. Wow. Well, they're real stick-in-the-muds there, huh, with their never-changing opinions.

There are simpler ways to insinuate racism, you ninny. In fact, you could just say it. Not that it would be true for most West Virginians, but hey, why let facts stand in the way of a good insult?

Chuck T will be here all week, everyone. He wants you to try the veal. Because it's tortured baby cow, and therefore DELICIOUS.

Anonymous said...

Please don't do a Illinoise poll! Colorado needs it way more!

Zornorph said...

As another poster said, Manchin fans can have a win-win by keeping him as Governor where they like the job he is doing and not sent him to Washington where he'll be 'forced' to follow the Obama-Pelosi agenda. If I were working for the GOP, I'd run an add making this point clear. I'm regretting locking Manchin in Slate's Lean/Lock game.

Anonymous said...

"Look at all those who think your CA poll is crap suddenly show up and applaud this poll."

The CA PPP results were the most Democrat-friendly of any public pollster. When PPP puts out a poll more Republican-friendly than any other pollster (say, Feingold down double digits) I'm sure people will point out that incongruity as well.

Dustin Ingalls said...

"Did you do governor for 2012?"

No.

"There are simpler ways to insinuate racism, you ninny."

WV is a 95% white state, and generally, the whiter the state, the less they like Obama. Not necessarily because of race (though certainly WV is a conservative "Southern" Dem state with a racially divisive history), but whites are far more frequently Republicans and conservatives than members of other races, who are far more often Democrats than whites. The GOP is very, very white, so the more whites you have and the fewer blacks and Hispanics, the more conservative and Republican and anti-Obama a particular region will be.

Anonymous said...

I find yours and Rasmussen Polls inaccurate when you only offer two political party options as to who is running for US Senate in WV. There is a THIRD party candidate running, Jesse Johnson, Mountain Party. The Mountain Party is included, check the Secretary of States Office website as one of three official political parties in WV. Has been that way for 10 years and hey have a candidate running. YOUR poll says nothing to me!

Dustin Ingalls said...

We have included third-party candidates in races in NC, FL, and IL. But we found no indication Johnson was a viable candidate with any base of support.

Jeremy said...

Where's Mountain Party candidate Jesse Johnson in all of this? I think people being polled need to be aware that there are THREE candidates running for U.S. Senate not just the two Republicans.

Rebecca said...

Mr. Jenson, I read in the WV Blue Blog that you did not find Jesse Johnson to have enough voter support to be a "viable" candidate to use in your recent Poll. Where did you look or where do you do your research, like everyone else, the newspapers? His voter support has grown exponentially since 2004 and is growing. Stay tuned in WV for how many votes he gets this Nov. 2nd.

If you just search there, no, you will not find support, they quash everything he does and says and only include what they HAVE to for courtesy. He is invited to all debates and forums and does a mighty fine job, standing head to head and above Manchin, but that is only IF the debate is not broad casted over all of WV and preempts radio and tv viewing. I refer to Johnson being banned by WV Broadcasters Association debates in 2004 and 2008. They do not want him to have anymore publicity than he can pay for which is not much.
Check out his Fan Page on Face Book: jesse4ussenate and read the comments. Mr. Jenson, I do NOT care what your poll survey comes up with, there IS support for the Mountain Party in WV and Manchin is NOT as popular as we are led to believe and Raese is blowing smoke up everyone's rear here and they will come to find out he is NOT one of us.
Mr> Jenson, you are watching a political Party grow, make history, be a part of it?

 
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