Tuesday, September 7, 2010

Obama Approval/2010 Vote Correlation

We'll start rolling our Maine poll out tomorrow and even there a majority of likely voters for this fall disapprove of Barack Obama.

How big of a problem is Obama's unpopularity for Democratic candidates? We're finding that almost no one who disapproves of the President is planning to vote Democratic for key offices this year. And obviously if you're in a state where the Obama disapprovers make the majority, that makes it virtually impossible for you to win if you can't pick up some of those folks.

Here are the numbers on how Democratic candidates are doing with voters who disapprove of Obama in key races we've polled over the last months:

Candidate

Office

% from Obama Disapprovers

Alex Sink

Florida Governor

14%

Dan Onorato

Pennsylvania Governor

11%

Lee Fisher

Ohio Senate

9%

Charlie Melancon

Louisiana Senate

9%

Joe Sestak

Pennsylvania Senate

8%

Ethan Berkowitz

Alaska Governor

8%

Scott McAdams

Alaska Senate

7%

Elaine Marshall

North Carolina Senate

6%

Alexi Giannoulias

Illinois Senate

6%

Robin Carnahan

Missouri Senate

6%

Ted Strickland

Ohio Governor

6%

Pat Quinn

Illinois Governor

4%

Kendrick Meek

Florida Senate

1%


Sink's 14% is largely the product of a fracturing Republican primary, and we'll see if those numbers hold true as that gets to be more and more in the rear view mirror. Onorato's ability to win over more folks who don't like Obama than most Democratic candidates may be an indication that he's the right candidate running in the wrong cycle.

For the most part though we're finding that Democratic candidates are doing only as well as the President's approval numbers. And with a majority of voters disapproving of Obama in most states that's a really, really big problem for the party this fall.

9 comments:

wt said...

These numbers make me worry about Kirk in Illinois. A large percentage of the Obama-approvers are going to come home for him in November, *and* he's getting 6% of Obama-disapprovers?

What percentage of Obama-approvers is Kirk going to get in return?

Zornorph said...

That makes me think that the GOP is up in the ME-Gov race. I am curious to see if they are also up in ME-02.

Anonymous said...

Rick Scott has gone full bore since the primary, wrapping that Obama anchor 'round and 'round Alex Sink.

Rick Scott will get people back to work / A vote for Sink is a vote for Obama.

How do you think that will turn out?

Christian Liberty said...

Onorato can do well with voters who disapprove of Obama because he constantly touts his record of cutting "waste and inefficiencies" in government "saving millions", "balanced the budgets six years in a row without once raising property taxes", reformed government by hiring professional managers and combating patronage and cronyism, eliminating county offices (held by Democrats), so government "works for us".

Notice how his issues sound like those of a Tea Party candidate. If his ad didn't say "the Democrat" in the final seconds, you would think Onorato was a Tea Party favorite. Once again, Democrats need to become more like the Tea Party to be electable.

An anti-tax, pro-growth record is critical for Democrats to separate themselves from the tax-and-spend leftists in Washington. Democrats must make themselves sound like Tea Party candidates in order to sound mainstream. Governor-candidates will be more able to do this than congressmen or senators.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j52UI1E18Iw

http://www.governing.com/blogs/politics/Dan-Onorato-Pennsylvania.html

Christian Liberty said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Anonymous said...

Maine has multiple candidates. Five are on the ballot and three are polling (in Rasmussen's polls) at 15%+.

It's also a state which has elected two independent Governors and, because of the many candidates running for governor many years, the winner often gets less than a majority of the vote. In the last governor's election, the winner got under 40% of the vote.

So the Obama-disapprovers could end up splitting their vote, allowing the Obama-approvers to join together in voting for Mitchell.

Also, Maine allows people to register the vote on the day of the election. So this could be a factor, too, enabling people now not classified as likely voters to vote.

Rich said...

Then this means Dems in safe seats should worry about their future. Is a safe seat polling +20 now? Under that should a Dem be worried?

For the GOP is a safe seat polling +5?
This also means the Dems are going to run out of cash before the GOP does. They have far more seats to defend and many more in danger of losing.

Christian Liberty said...

"This is an encouraging season for education reform, and the latest development is a bipartisan political breakout on vouchers in the unlikely state of Pennsylvania.

Last month, and to widespread surprise, Democratic gubernatorial candidate Dan Onorato came out in support of school vouchers for underprivileged kids."

Once again, we see that Democrats must run as conservatives if they are to be electable.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704147804575455782883586338.html

Dustin Ingalls said...

"Also, Maine allows people to register the vote on the day of the election. So this could be a factor, too, enabling people now not classified as likely voters to vote."

That's unlikely to have much impact in a midterm election. In a presidential year, it could have a minor impact.

"This also means the Dems are going to run out of cash before the GOP does. They have far more seats to defend and many more in danger of losing."

Luckily the Dems have more cash to begin with.

"Once again, we see that Democrats must run as conservatives if they are to be electable."

You're a crock if you think vouchers are conservative. They're handouts.

 
Web Statistics