Tuesday, September 28, 2010

Obama in Illinois

The Illinois poll we'll release this week won't do much to change the conventional wisdom on either the Senate or Gubernatorial race in the state but it does have one pretty surprising finding: Barack Obama's approval numbers have dropped into negative territory even with likely voters in his home state. 44% approve of the job he's doing while 49% say they disapprove.

Obama's home state approval numbers had before avoided some of the trends dragging down his numbers in other states but that's no longer the case. Independents strongly disapprove of him with just 35% feeling he's doing a good job to 57% unhappy. Whatever support he may have maintained with Republicans has now evaporated, with only 3% of them approving of him. And although his 80/12 spread with Democrats is still pretty solid it's not what it had been previously.

Does this mean Obama would lose Illinois if there was an election tomorrow? Of course not. The likely electorate in the state for the midterm is much more conservative than you would see for a Presidential election with voters on this poll having supported Obama by only 15 points in 2008 compared to his actual 25 point victory in the state. Still it's a sign that even on the home front Obama can't be expected to be much of a help this fall.

We'll have Senate numbers tomorrow and Governor numbers on Thursday.

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

Does PPP weight for age? I see that NM-2 poll has 18-29ers as a mere 4%... impossible! Any explanation?

Anonymous said...

Why not poll on Blago's approvals and if Blago would be a drag on IL Dems?

Mark said...

In your last poll, the electorate voted for Obama by 9 points margin in 2008. In that poll, Giannoulias led by 2 points. So, if the electorate in this poll voted for Obama by 15 point margin, I would suspect Giannoulias to lead Kirk by at least 3-4 points.

Dustin Ingalls said...

"Does PPP weight for age?"

Yes.

"Why not poll on Blago's approvals and if Blago would be a drag on IL Dems?"

We did do Blago fav. It's not in this release, though.

"In your last poll, the electorate voted for Obama by 9 points margin in 2008. In that poll, Giannoulias led by 2 points. So, if the electorate in this poll voted for Obama by 15 point margin, I would suspect Giannoulias to lead Kirk by at least 3-4 points."

The opinions of Obama and McCain voters have changed, though, if you look at the crosstabs we link to. Kirk is now getting 9% more of the McCain voters and 5% more of Obama voters. Giannoulias is getting 3% less of each.

wt said...

Great work. Very impressive polling data, and interesting to see the Green candidate's support stay where it is.

I actually like Kirk a lot -- he's a lot more moderate than the rest of the candidate's running this year -- I hope he pulls it out and can put the military stuff behind him.

 
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