Sunday, September 12, 2010

Delaware/NH Preview

We're going to have Republican primary numbers out in Delaware and New Hampshire late tonight and based on the first day of polling it's clear both of these races are in single digit territory- there is not likely to be a run away winner in either.

Here are a couple key facts based on the numbers so far:

-53% of primary voters in Delaware think that Mike Castle is too liberal.

-Many of the Republicans who like Sarah Palin in New Hampshire are still ignoring her endorsement- Kelly Ayotte has only a 6 point lead over Ovide Lamontagne with folks who say they would be positively influenced by her support.

Those facts speak to some of the trouble Castle and Ayotte are having putting their races away.

On another note we're going to poll California this week- what questions should we ask besides the obvious? We're going to put that one in the field earlier than we usually do and your suggestions are always appreciated!

40 comments:

Andrew Carden said...

For California, poll on whether Fiorina's pro-life position makes voters "more likely" or "less likely" to support her candidacy.

DownWithTyranny said...

Can you ask if Meg Whitman's barrage of ads have turned voters off to her and even made them hate her and dread the very idea of her ever holding public office?

yokem55 said...

As for a California question, a good one would be a reaction poll to the Walker/Prop 8 decision. You could also go Rassmusseny and ask about how people feel about golden parachutes for failed executives before going into the Governor & Senate horse race questions, ;).

Anonymous said...

Maybe a re-hash of Prop 8?

DBL said...

Yes or no on prop 20, the prop that gives the power of redistricting congress to an independent commission.

Anonymous said...

Sounds like Castle is in trouble in DE. Time to rally behind O'Donnell and save the money for spotlighting Coons. There is plenty to point out.

Zach said...

I think a good question for your California poll would be how many people would prefer Hillary Clinton be president right now. Maybe that's a question for the national poll instead.

I'd also be curious to see a Whitman v. Newsom question to see if Democrats would have been better off without Brown.

Anonymous said...

Ask Californians if they prefer tax hikes to budget cuts. Also ask about the top two style primary that will soon be a feature there, as well as the fair redistricting acts in both the legislature and congess.

Jeff said...

Another Prop 19 (pot legalization) poll would be good: SurveyUSA showed it getting closer so it's worth seeing what's happening there. Also a similar poll on Pelosi like you did for Boehner in Ohio would be fun.

Anonymous said...

Poll other statewide races. LG and AG in particular. Comptroller if you have the room. Like another user posts above a question regarding abortion would be nice.

Alibguy said...

Can you ask whether votes support Prop 21 which will help the state parks if passed? I have not seen any polls on that race yet.

Also, could you ask about Prop 27 which is about repealing Prop 11 from 2008.

Anonymous said...

Be sure to ask about Prop 19 again for California

Anonymous said...

You've got to poll Prop 8 again, of course.

Also, since California seems to have taken a fairly hard right in regards to the Senate and Governors races, you should see how Obama would do in a hypothetical 2012 match up.

Anonymous said...

Ask about the marijuana proposition of course.

Anonymous said...

California:

Tax Hikes vs Budget Cuts.
Prop 20, Independent Redistricting.
Prop 19, Marijuana. I know you polled this, but keep tracking it.
Lieutenant Governor: Abel Maldonado vs Gavin Newsom. How is a moderate Republican doing in this state? (This is the question I think is the most important)
Favorables for the California State Legislature.

Another question:
You had done a couple questions like Who was the most popular politician in Illinois and Pennsylvania. I think Durbin and Casey won. Are you going to do those again?

Anonymous said...

For the California poll, you should definitely ask about the marijuana initiative. It would be especially interesting to see the cross-tabs on that as it relates to candidate support, race/ethnicity, age, geography, etc.

Philip said...

Prop 19 and Prop 8 definitely should be polled. I would also be interested in crosstabs to see how the ~15% who actually approve of Schwarzenegger are voting for Senate and Governor.

Based on my experience, Brown is promoting fiscal sanity and Whitman is attacking Brown for his supposed lack of fiscal sanity, so ask which candidate is more likely to cut taxes and/or cut spending?

Additionally, given that the Senate is now in play, ask whether voters may rethink voting for Boxer or Fiorina if they would be the deciding vote for control of the Senate.

Anonymous said...

I just received the New Hampshire survey and many of the questions were asked 2 or 3 times in a row. An example of this is when I was asked if I would vote for Paul Hodes or Kelly Ayotte in November, I pressed my answer and the call asked that question 2 more times in a row. How accurate can this poll be if it has these technical glitches?

Tom Jensen said...

Anonymous,

We interview hundreds of thousands of people a year and this is literally the first time I've ever heard of that happening. E-mail us your phone number and I'll see what happened with your interview.

Philip said...

Also, if 53% think Castle's too liberal, then O'Donnell should have a nice sleep on Tuesday night, considering that only 47% thought Murkowski was too liberal.

Anonymous said...

Maybe do some presidential matchups in CA? Or Arnold vs. Difi.

exdeadhead said...

PPP, the DEM pollster of choice, perhaps practicing a little "Operation Chaos" in reverse.

Michael said...

Poll Prop 23, the bill that would effectively repeal AB 32, the climate change bill passed in 2006.
Also the LG (in light of the the San Bruno explosion) anf AD races.

Anonymous said...

In CA, maybe try some down ballot races. LG and AG are looking like close races. Controller is a rematch of a close 2006 race, and SoS has a well known former NFL player going up against an incumbent SoS.

Anonymous said...

For the CA poll, definitely include Lt. Gov. & AG polling - the former is an interesting interior CA vs. coastal CA race, and the latter is a textbook No. Cal. vs. So. Cal. race. Especially with the latter, it'd be interesting to see what the geographical breakdowns are on the AG race. Aside from that, a generic party-support ballot for legislature races, and an Obama approve/disapprove question would also be great...

Anonymous said...

When will the Delaware results be out tonight? Will they be posted here?

rprez said...

In California, Id like to see 1) review of how much Palin's endorsement helped Carly Fiorina win the GOP nomination and if CA voters especially Republicans and Independents ate more likely or less likely to vote for her based on Palin's support

Anonymous said...

Did you poll 2012?

billsv said...

Ask about employee attitudes towards public employee salaries and pension benefits. Would they like to eliminate collective bargaining for public employees defined as who are paid directly or indirectly with taxpayer funds.

Anonymous said...

Ask who the Ca. voters believe can offer a more innovative and fresher approach to governing: Brown or Whitman?

Anonymous said...

When you say the DE results will be out late, do you mean late, or LATE?

placebo aut nocebo said...

Why don't you ask whether they approve of proposition 25, the proposition to reduce the budget vote requirement

Anonymous said...

For California, ask people if they know who the vice president is. Then correlate that data with the answers to the other questions so we can see what's supported by informed people vs. ignorant people.

Anonymous said...

Best California Poll Question: Do you think Jerry Brown's Policy that Unionizing State workers while he was governer directly contributed to California's current financial Crises like the Public Pension problem or state workers making almost twice the pay as a private worker etc. you can choose A)little to no affect B)somewhat or the correct one C)that was the begining of the end of California's great economy

RFarrow said...

On California, could you poll voting intention for Treasurer? That's the third statewide office with a GOP female candidate running (Mimi).

Aaron Roland said...

For California:

Has the information you have learned about Meg Whitman through her extensive advertising made you more or less likely to support her candidacy?

Do you think that Meg Whitman has spent too much money trying to win the California governorship?

Anonymous said...

Mike Castle is a Republican in a predominately Democratic state. He always listens to the people of Delaware when he votes which is why his record appears to be liberal. He is honest and ethical. O'Donnell is not and has had many legal problems. Coons is backing a political charged real estate venture that most Delawareans don't want. As we head to November, this will cost him the election. People in Delaware trust Mike Castle and resent outsiders like Palin for trying to tell them how to vote.

Anonymous said...

For California, check Bill Clinton's favorables, seeing as he's played a role in ads from both gubernatorial candidates this week. I was shocked to see Brown attack him like that.

wt said...

This is a little indulgent, because I voted for Campbell, but I'd love to see the Boxer-Campbell numbers, or even the Boxer-Devore numbers.

Not that there are any hard feelings. I'm volunteering for Carly now. Just curiosity.

Anonymous said...

Could you ask about Meg Whitman's Bill Clinton ad and how its affecting their vote.

 
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