We have Illinois and North Carolina numbers coming this week. Now the choices for next weekend:
-Colorado. We found Michael Bennet ahead the last time we polled it, before the primary. Most numbers since then have shown Ken Buck ahead. We're overdue for another look at Colorado.
-Connecticut. All the sudden this race looks like it could be very interesting. Or if Blumenthal's internals are correct not so much. Either way worth our first look since January.
-Florida. Marco Rubio seems to be pulling away in most polling and I don't really doubt that but always enjoy looking at this fascinating race. Rasmussen suggested Rick Scott might be doing better last week- do we confirm or deny?
-Nevada. Haven't gone there since July and with multitudes of polls coming out in the state every week showing basically the same thing I'm not sure our take is really needed but if you want to see a PPP Nevada poll here's your chance.
-New York. Can't believe this is on the list but after last week's polling roller coaster there I'm interested to see what we would find.
-Washington. Most recent polling has shown Patty Murray pulling away but we haven't been there in a while so I'm interested to see if we would find the same.
Voting is open until Thursday morning, we'll do at least the top 2. And please give your suggestions for questions beyond the obvious in these states.
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18 comments:
I voted New York. Two polls showed Joe DioGuardi 1 and 6 points below Kirsten Gillibrand. I'm interested to see what PPP finds.
New York Special Election definitely. I don't think anyone was expecting a race there.
Can you ask the people who vote in your poll if they'd trust their minor children alone with a priest or minister or politician?
Definitely New York. As Paladino and DioGuardi begin to unravel Cuomo and Gillibrand and their connections to HUD and the supbrime mortgage crisis, this race with continue to tighten.
Areas that Bill Clinton turned solid blue, specifically the Hudson Valley and Long Island suburbs of New York City, have been trending Republican in the past eighteen months.
The Republicans have successfully toppled County Executives in the two largest Counties, and won two special elections for the State Legislature for seats that had been held by Democrats since the mid-90s.
In each of those instances a Democratic establishment candidate played a rose garden strategy and hit the challenger through surrogates, and it has proven to be a losing strategy.
I think things are a lot closer between Cuomo-Paladino and Dio-Guardi-Gillibrand then the mainstream press would like to admit.
However, they will probably wake up and claim that it's razor thin in order to motivate Democrats to come to the polls - maybe we DON'T want a poll revealing how tight things are!
New York, obviously. Senate and Governor.
Also Hillary vs Obama in the 2012 primary.
I voted New York too. Another Marist poll came today with Gillibrand leading by 11 (though their data is from last week, for some reason they sat on it over the weekend).
With the primaries being over, I'm kind of getting bored. Putting new races on the table is the only thing that will satisfy me.
I voted for CT, though I am only interested in the Senate race as I think the Gov is a done deal. But I'd love to see what you find there. I wouldn't be at all sorry of CO or FL got the nod, though. Not much suspense in FL-Sen, but FL-Gov is interesting. CO-Gov looks interesting too, in a train wreck sort of way. Could the creepy TT actually get close enough to make it a race?
NV is overpolled and I think NY won't turn into a race at the end of the day. And I'm afraid WA-Sen will just confirm my fears that Murray is pulling away. :)
Colorado. There have been too many New York and Connecticut polls lately for any new results to be particularly illuminating, whereas the Colorado race at least has some potential to show something interesting.
I voted CT, mostly because all the polling this year has had McMahon inching closer to Blumenthall, and CT is probably the best example of the competitive races this cycle. A highly unconventional Republican candidate running close in a solidly blue but highly suburban state against a popular elected Democrat. It's also likely to be the 50th Senate seat needed for a potential Republican takeover.
If you do CT,
Ask if Lieberman belongs as a Republican, Independent, or Democrat.
2012, Chris Murphy Democrat, Joe Lieberman Independent, Jodi Rell, Republican.
Do variations of those, maybe have Jim Himes as the Democrat???
Ask if CT voters supported Lieberman's wishy-washy stances on HCR.
Do a generic congressional ballot with possible dark-horse pickups for Republicans in CT-02, CT-04, and CT-05.
If you do NY:
Obviously ask about the generic congressional ballot.
Ask whether they approve of the job of the State Senate. (that's the one who had the coup last year)
Ask if they approve of the State Assembly
Ask what they think of Pedro Espada, the corrupt Democratic Majority Leader in Albany
Ask if Andrew Cuomo or the Republican is best suited to clean up the mess
Ask about baseball teams: Mets and Yankees
Ask about gay marriage, which was narrowly defeated in the legislature.
generic state senate ballot in ny.
interest in Bloombergs girlfriend running for mayor in 2013.
I voted Colorado. Bennet, Markey and Salazar are too close to call as Dem and Hispanic turnout are expected to be tepid, at best.
But that could change now that racial pol Tom Tancredo is only 10 points behind Hickenlooper, with Maes at 15%. Tancredo has endorsed "The Terrible Three" statewide ballot measures on spending, bonding and taxes that are opposed by business and political leaders.
NY and CO
There are so many contradictory polls coming out of NY. I'd like to see confirmation that the race is not so interesting or, as the case may be, the need to "sound the alarm" to all my NY friends (I live here).
CO is a no-brainer (and I'm not referring to any candidate running for Gov); it's still on the radar and I'd like to look for signs of any movement.
I hope you guys do the top 3!
New York
Connecticut
Colorado
I voted CO because I'd really like to see an updated PPP poll - a very interesting race.
NY was my 2nd choice. If you do poll New York, PLEASE ask about same-sex marriage! The state hasn't had a decent poll on the issue and it was defeated in the State Senate last year after passing the Assembly. I'd be very interested in the results of that.
New York Senate Special Election!
I wouldn't hold my breath on Gilly's small lead over DioGuardi. It's such a small margin. Since the Primary win, Joe's message has been resonating and at the increasing rate of support Joe has, it looks as if he can pull the undecideds and Independent voters to swing to his advantage! Continued visits to the workplace and meeting with the people. Joe will prevail to victory! Go Joe! Go!
Colorado.
Tom, here's a few questions to poll if you choose New York:
1. Which baseball team to you support: Yankees, Mets, or other (I'd love to see a regional or area code breakdown)
2. If you had 3 choices: Yankees, Mets, or the Brooklyn Dodgers, whom would you support? (I'd love to see a regional breakdown or area code breakdown as well)
3. Polling the Governor race and the NY Sen Special for obvious reasons with a regional breakdown. I'd be curious to see if the Republican "revival" last year in Nassau, Suffolk, and Westchester (they now hold all 3 county executive seats) was temporary, or if it will effect the statewide races this year.
Thanks!
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