Tuesday, March 8, 2011

Newt's Tough Road Ahead

There are a lot of strikes against a potential Newt Gingrich Presidential candidacy. From a polling perspective his biggest problem is that he pretty universally finishes in fourth place in our state by state polling with just the occasional second or third place finish. And he can't exactly say his poll numbers will improve once voters get to know him better because his name recognition is already at 70 to 80% in most states. Because he's already well known and lags in the polls his chances at the nomination really depend on Mike Huckabee and Sarah Palin not running, and Gingrich possibly becoming the top choice of conservatives against the more centrist Mitt Romney.

Here's the problem for Gingrich with that path to the nomination though: Palin and Huckabee voters really don't like him all that much more than they like Romney. With Republicans who currently list Huckabee as their top choice for the nomination Gingrich's favorability is a 58/24 spread and Romney's is actually better at 59/19. With Republicans who say Palin's their top choice right now Gingrich's numbers are slightly better than Romney's, but just by a small margin- 53/29 for the former Speaker as opposed to 50/29 for the former Governor.

Gingrich really can't expect to get much of a bounce even if Palin and Huckabee don't end up running. And that probably means someone(s) from further back in the field who have a lot more room to grow as they become better known will become the conservative purist alternatives to Romney. Our numbers just don't suggest much of a path for Gingrich.

5 comments:

Granny T said...

Huckabee told us he is "very seriously considering running" - so I don't need to be looking at anyone else.

The Interesting Time said...

Granny T, Gingrich was "very seriously considering running" in 2008. He didn't run.

The Commissioner said...

Interested in Huckabee?

http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=8838

Really?

Anonymous said...

As a Republican, I'll again be voting for Obama. I may not agree with his goals but my God, is there any Republican candidate that isn't mind-numbingly stupid? Let's Face it, Obama compromised with Republicans at every turn. He passed Bob Dole's Healthcare bill. Huckabee wants the government in my bedroom and in my children's classrooms. Palin is all flash and no substance with a proven track record of shirking responsibility and ducking any tough question put in front of her. Gingrich is a morally bankrupt hypocrite and Romney only says what he thinks we want to hear while doing something completely different. Obama is fiscally conservative compared to Reagan and Bush. Sure, bash me and call me a RINO all you want but short of Huntsman running, there isn't a chance in hell of a Republican getting my vote for President.

GregM said...

Hurray for Anonymous! If only your party had more like you.

I'll also be proudly voting for OBama.

 
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