There are a lot of strikes against a potential Newt Gingrich Presidential candidacy. From a polling perspective his biggest problem is that he pretty universally finishes in fourth place in our state by state polling with just the occasional second or third place finish. And he can't exactly say his poll numbers will improve once voters get to know him better because his name recognition is already at 70 to 80% in most states. Because he's already well known and lags in the polls his chances at the nomination really depend on Mike Huckabee and Sarah Palin not running, and Gingrich possibly becoming the top choice of conservatives against the more centrist Mitt Romney.
Here's the problem for Gingrich with that path to the nomination though: Palin and Huckabee voters really don't like him all that much more than they like Romney. With Republicans who currently list Huckabee as their top choice for the nomination Gingrich's favorability is a 58/24 spread and Romney's is actually better at 59/19. With Republicans who say Palin's their top choice right now Gingrich's numbers are slightly better than Romney's, but just by a small margin- 53/29 for the former Speaker as opposed to 50/29 for the former Governor.
Gingrich really can't expect to get much of a bounce even if Palin and Huckabee don't end up running. And that probably means someone(s) from further back in the field who have a lot more room to grow as they become better known will become the conservative purist alternatives to Romney. Our numbers just don't suggest much of a path for Gingrich.