Wednesday, June 18, 2008

Obama holds small Virginia lead

Barack Obama 47
John McCain 45

Barack Obama begins the general election in Virginia with a slight lead. The key to his success, as in Ohio, is that he is bringing most Democrats back into the fold following the contentious primary season. He leads McCain 78-17 with folks in his own party, a perfectly respectable showing in a southern state where many who identify themselves as Democrats don't necessarily vote that way in federal elections.

Good news for Obama in the crosstabs shows him trailing McCain only 50-41 with white voters. The poll found Obama leading McCain just 67-32 with black voters at this time, but realistically his advantage has to be greater than that and will likely build toward the election. Polling this year has consistently underestimated the percentage of African American voters Obama ends up receiving.

There is a significant gender gap in the numbers, with Obama leading by ten points among female voters but trailing by eight points among men.

Full results here.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

For me, this election is over.
Quinnipiac has new numbers and Obama lead in Florida, Ohio and PA.
With the hard work from the liberal groups and the Obama army for registered new voters in every states(8 teams for registered voters in Ohio), Obama will win in a landslide in November.

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