Tuesday, February 3, 2009

How Carnahan stacks up

Robin Carnahan is in the race for Senate in Missouri.

When we did a poll on this last month we found that 45% of voters in the state had a favorable opinion of her with 36% viewing her unfavorably. 19% had no opinion. 76% of Democrats viewed her positively, and her announcement should effectively clear the field on that side.

It is unclear how strong her bipartisan support is. Only 15% of Republicans we polled last month said they had had a favorable opinion of her, but at the same time our final pre-election poll last fall found her winning around a quarter of the Republican vote in her reelection bid for Secretary of State, which is quite a respectable performance. It could be that GOP voters would be more concerned with her party label as one of 100 Senators than they are with her serving in a state office.

When we tested Carnahan in possible match ups against Republicans Roy Blunt, Jim Talent, and Sarah Steelman she led all three, although it was pretty close against Blunt and Talent. One of the main reasons it was so close against them is that she earned only 54% support from black voters in those contests. Early polling tends to underestimate black support for Democratic candidates, which tends to run closer to 90%, but Carnahan may still have some work to do shoring up her standing with one of the party's key demographics. Assuming she can do that, her initial lead over potential GOP foes is stronger than our numbers indicate.

One of Carnahan's particular strengths as a Democratic candidate is her popularity with white voters. She led Talent and Steelman in that demographic in our initial polling, and only trailed Blunt by a single point. Any statewide Democrat in Missouri who can run roughly even with whites will win an easy victory overall. To put it in perspective, Barack Obama nearly won the state last year despite losing the white vote 57-42 according to the exit polls.

A seat in the Senate is not inevitable for Robin Carnahan in this perpetually competitive state, but she certainly starts out as the favorite.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

酒店喝酒,禮服店,酒店小姐,制服店,便服店,鋼琴酒吧,兼差,酒店兼差,酒店打工,伴唱小姐,暑假打工,酒店上班,日式酒店,ktv酒店,酒店,酒店公關,酒店小姐,酒店兼差,酒店上班,酒店打工,禮服酒店,禮服店,酒店小姐,酒店兼差,寒暑假打工,酒店小姐,台北酒店,禮服店 ,酒店小姐,酒店經紀,酒店兼差,寒暑假打工,酒店小姐,台北酒店,禮服店 ,酒店小姐,酒店經紀,酒店兼差,寒暑假打工,酒店小姐,台北酒店,禮服店 ,酒店小姐,酒店經紀,酒店兼差,寒暑假打工,台北酒店,禮服店 ,酒店小姐,酒店經紀,酒店兼差,寒暑假打工,酒店小姐,台北酒店,禮服店 ,酒店小姐,酒店兼差,寒暑假打工,酒店小姐,台北酒店,禮服店 ,酒店小姐,酒店經紀,酒店兼差,寒暑假打工,酒店小姐,台北酒店,禮服店 ,酒店小姐,酒店經紀,酒店兼差,寒暑假打工,酒店小姐,台北酒店,禮服店 ,酒店小姐,酒店經紀,酒店兼差,寒暑假打工,酒店小姐,台北酒店,禮服店 ,酒店小姐,酒店經紀,酒店兼差,寒暑假打工,酒店小姐,禮服店 ,酒店小姐,酒店經紀,酒店兼差,寒暑假打工,酒店小姐,禮服店 ,酒店小姐,酒店經紀,酒店兼差,寒暑假打工,酒店小姐,禮服店 ,酒店小姐,酒店經紀,酒店兼差,寒暑假打工,酒店小姐,禮服店 ,酒店小姐,酒店經紀,酒店兼差,寒暑假打工,酒店小姐,經紀 彩色爆米花,經紀人 彩色爆米花,酒店傳播,酒店經紀 彩色爆米花,爆米花,童裝,童裝拍賣,童裝大盤,童裝寄賣,童裝批貨,酒店,酒店,童裝切貨,酒店,GAP童裝,酒店,酒店 ,禮服店 , 酒店小姐,酒店經紀,酒店兼差,寒暑假打工,招待所,酒店小姐,酒店兼差,寒暑假打工,酒店上班,暑假打工,酒店公關,酒店兼職,酒店經紀

 
Web Statistics