Thursday, February 5, 2009

More on Virginia

-It was interesting to note that there was indeed somewhat of a disparity in Terry McAuliffe's favorability depending on whether respondents were born in Virginia or elsewhere. Natives had a net negative view of him at 24/25, while transplants had a positive opinion of him, 34/22. Despite his 'minus' rating with natives, he still actually led Creigh Deeds and Brian Moran by a narrow margin among them because most of the life long Virginians who do have a favorable view of him are planning to vote for him already.

Doing poorly with natives may not end up hurting McAuliffe that much anyway. 62% of likely primary voters we interviewed last weekend said they were born outside the state. We'll have to do some more surveys before we establish that 60% + range for transplants as a fact rather than just a finding on this particular poll but it would not surprise me that much.

-Some folks thought it was odd McAuliffe led among blacks despite his well known support of Hillary Clinton last year. I think that advantage is closely related to his already being up on the air in the Hampton Roads area, which had a higher percentage of African Americans voters than any other region of the state we polled. He's doing disproportionately well with all voters there, including blacks.

-It'll be interesting to see if anyone is able to get a leg up with female voters in this all male contest. Right now the candidates are all within 6% of each other in that very powerful demographic.

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