Monday, December 14, 2009

Generic ballot tightening up

Congressional Democrats are hitting popularity levels almost as low as the Republicans, and that's tightening up the generic ballot in our newest round of national polling.

59% of voters now disapprove of Congressional Democrats compared to just 28% who think they're doing a good job. As recently as October the spread was only 37/49. It's been an across the board drop for the party over that period of time. They've declined from 65% to 55% with Democratic voters, from 29% to 19% with independents and from 8% to 4% with Republicans.

The Republicans are still even more unpopular, with a 24/61 approval spread, but that's actually a slight improvement from a 21/61 mark in October.

Independents are extremely disgusted with both parties, giving the Republicans a 69% disapproval rating and the Democrats a 66% one.

Republicans have now pulled within 44-42 on the generic Congressional ballot, a six point improvement from a 46-38 gap a month ago. A key reason for the tightening is that Republican voters are more unified, saying they plan to vote for their party by an 86-7 margin compared to Democrats who are only committed to theirs by an 81-10 spread. Independents narrowly favor the Democrats 35-33, a reduction in their lead from 37-30 a month ago.

These numbers are another warning sign that Congressional Democrats need to get some things accomplished to keep the base on board. Their numbers aren't declining because of unhappiness from conservatives- that ship sailed a long time ago. It's because Democrats and Democratic leaning independents are getting frustrated at the slow rate of progress on key issues they care about.

Full results here


Anonymous said...

A key reason for the tightening is that Republican voters are more unified
You forgot to mention the actual reason, your sample of "Registered Voters" voted for Obama in the 2008 election by just two points.

Of course, if you were using a statistically sound sample, you couldn't twist reality to the narrative of your choosing. So in that sense the results you got are understandable.

Then again, it's possible your flawed statistics are simply a side-effect of automated polling.

Anonymous said...

"Flawed Polling"?

I've come to the conclusion that automated polling is more accurate than people-based interviews.

I can only hope that the White House doesn't dismiss automated polling, as you have done.

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